India is today seen as one of the leading economies in the world and counted among the top five. China and India could vie to take the first and second slot in about 30-40 years.
But is this a true and real picture of India while a large portion of our citizens languish under poverty, deprivation, even lack of food and high malnutrition? Also, India still has one of the largest illiterate populations, both in terms of absolute size and in proportionate terms.
Let us take a look at literacy and education as an example and assess what it would take for India to ensure creditable presence in the ‘league of top nations'.
Accomplishments since Independence in terms of literacy, spread of institutions, participation and equalisation of educational opportunities have been quite significant.
There has been a phenomenal increase in the number of educational institutions, faculty, in teachers and students. The 1991 census saw India across the 50 per cent literacy mark, and by 2011 the literacy level has reached 74.5 per cent.
Yet the rural-urban disparities in literacy have remained, although there has only been a marginal decline in gender disparity of late.
To understand future prospects in literacy and education, one needs to analyse process indicators such as enrolment and quality of education.
PRATHAM-ASER SURVEY
Pratham, a well-known civil society organiation, undertakes ‘annual assessment of education' and brings out a report identified as ASER. The seventh such report with reference year 2011 provides a conflicting scenario — that practically all children 5-14 years are enrolled in the schooling system, over one quarter of them attend private schooling, but a substantial proportion of children in government schools have very low levels of learning in terms of language, comprehension and numeracy.
While there is something to cheer about in terms of enrolment efforts, with the private sector doing its bit, there are serious problems in the process, impact and outcome of the education sector in India.
The quality of schools and schooling is poor in the government system, although the government-appointed teachers are well educated compared with the purely private schools.
The private schools, excepting for Kerala (actually, government aided schools in Kerala), can also be of unsatisfactory quality, and tend to appoint poorly trained and poorly paid teachers. Thus, overall the situation is akin to sowing seeds on the land, with no crop to reap at the end of the season.
I wish the ASER report had explored a few factors which impact school continuation rates.
There is a debate as to the impact of mid-day meals on continuation of schooling; similarly, provision of drinking water and toilets is expected to help improve girls' schooling.
The high cost of education is considered an impediment to schooling, yet one finds large increase in private schooling in India. How can this trend be explained?
During the last two or three years, there has been an emphasis on pre- and post-matric scholarships — what is its impact?
While it is true that there has been a slow increase in literacy, enrolment and continuation rate in India, deficits are likely to be concentrated among specified population groups or socio-religious groups.
It would have been useful, if information on language of instruction had also been analysed, especially with respect to learning ability of English.
This dimension in the dynamics of literacy and education can also be a separate chapter in ASER, at least as a supplementary report of 2011, and certainly as an integral part of its report in 2012.
That said, ASER-2011 should be appreciated for being a rare analytical measurement of learning ability and change over the last seven years, with the annual series of data available.
However, sampling and non-sampling errors cannot be ruled out. The recent survey was undertaken about the time Census of India 2011 was in operation, which could have led to absence of teachers from school.
Similarly, often the basic literacy programmes are implemented in various formats — for example, there can be special campaigns when quality of learning can increase, albeit temporarily, and so on. Analysis on learning abilities in arithmetic has also been evaluated and the scenario is much worse than the one enunciated in case of reading alone.
WORRYING INDICATORS
The ASER report has indicated that what is measured as enrolment does not reflect school attendance.
The latter has remained very poor; in States such as Bihar, UP and West Bengal there is a sharp decline in school continuation. Another disturbing factor is an increase in multi-grade classrooms, which could be a factor for children shifting away from government to private schools in most states.
ASER divides the schooling identities into government and private; although it refers to un-aided schools which can be considered private schools, what is disputable is to consider aided-schools as private. Here, while community groups manage the primary and elementary school, most of the expenditures including teachers' salaries are met by the state budgetary mechanism.
Overall, however, the private primary and elementary schools appear to produce relatively better levels of literacy compared with the government schools, although if other factors are controlled for, this advantage may disappear.
Further, the fact that private tutoring would sustain levels of learning somewhat has been enunciated through this research, although generally it is only complementary to the quality of schooling itself.
The worrying fact is that compared with previous years, the learning levels in government school system have declined, while the private school has maintained its own quality of education.
(The author is Chief Economist, NCAER, and Executive Director (Designate), US-India Policy Institute, Washington DC. >blfeedback@thehindu.co.in )