The grand spectacle in Varanasi notwithstanding, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019 just hasn’t managed to summon the popular frenzy that Candidate Modi whipped up in the summer of 2014.

Midway through the general elections, voting averages have touched above 69 per cent in the first two phases and dropped to 66 per cent and a provisional 64 per cent respectively for the third and fourth phases, indicating that the overall voter turnout in 2019 may be about the same as recorded in 2014 — about 66.40 per cent.

Pollsters and partisans on both sides of the fence in the television-driven hysteria that is currently masquerading as election campaign may claim this as a sign of pro- or anti-incumbency depending on their respective affiliations. The undeniable fact, however, is that while a number of voters similar to 2014 may come out to vote in 2019, the statistic that is missing here is the quantum jump from 2009 to 2014 of a staggering 9.43 per cent in overall turnout that decidedly signified the “Modi wave” last time around. The average voter turnout of 66.40 per cent in 2014 was the highest ever in the history of Indian general elections.

So, if one looks past the manufactured hyperbole and marks West Bengal, the usually high-voting North-Eastern States, and Kerala as among the exceptions where people have come out to poll in massive numbers, the reality is that the fervour of 2014 has been distinctly lost in what is unfolding as a largely colourless and odourless election.

And it is not just that the novelty and spark of Brand Modi has faded with over-exposure. More importantly, the hope and excitement that Candidate Modi and debutant Arvind Kejriwal inspired in sharp contrast to the then fossilised Congress and the Phoenix-like Manmohan Singh in 2014 seem to have largely dissipated.

But just because the PM and his ever-obliging broadcasters have not managed to whip up a wave in his favour, it does not automatically translate into a wave against him. The PM remains the most popular and visible face of elections and the strongest reason for the BJP to believe it stands a reasonable chance to emerge as the single largest party.

PM’s persona

The BJP, in fact, has been entirely eclipsed by the PM’s larger than life persona; people are voting for Modi not BJP. Unpopular candidates across the country, be it Hema Malini in Mathura (Uttar Pradesh) or Nalin Kumar Kateel in Dakshin Kannada (Karnataka), hope to see themselves through on the strength of what is undeniably the “Modi factor” that is still working well for the BJP.

What has changed on the ground is that the hope in Achhe Din and Modi which pushed millions of people to rise above the cleavages of caste, community and social group pressures and support the BJP in 2014 is somewhat diminished; a substantial number of them are falling back on their traditional voting patterns.

Nowhere is this pattern more visible than the politically critical State of Uttar Pradesh where the three caste-based parties — BSP with its largely Jatav voter base, the SP with Yadavs and the RLD with Jats — have consolidated into one block; if one adds the Muslim vote, a formidable opposition emerges against the BJP.

The best interpretation of the ongoing trends in UP was provided by a bunch of BJP leaders and workers in Moradabad which polled in the third phase. This election, according to UP Minister for Panchayati Raj Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary, is about Modi and people are either voting to elect him or throw him out. Although Chaudhary was of the opinion that in a Modi-versus-all election, the PM is a clear winner, his other colleagues were worried about the caste arithmetic on the ground. While the number that wants to elect him is the same, those against him are more united this time.

For instance, in the three adjoining seats of Rampur, Moradabad and Sambhal, the BJP’s victory margins in 2014 against its chief rival, the SP, stood at 23,425; 87,504 and 4,932 votes respectively. Simultaneously, the votes polled by the BSP candidates in Moradabad and Sambhal and by the Nawab of Rampur Kazim Ali, who stood on a Congress ticket in 2014, were much higher than the difference between the winner BJP and the runners-up SP in the three seats.

Helping hand

This time, the Congress has strategically helped the Mahagathbandhan by not putting up any member of the Rampur Nawab family and given the party ticket to the former MLA from Bilaspur Sanjay Kapur who is expected to damage the chances of BJP’s Jaya Prada more than that of SP’s Azam Khan.

Similarly, in the neighbouring Lok Sabha seat of Sambhal, the veteran Shafiqur Rehman Barq of the SP lost to Satyapal Saini of the BJP in 2014 by a margin of 4,932 votes while the BSP secured 2,52,640 votes. This time, because of the alliance between SP and BSP, Barq’s chances have considerably improved. The BJP workers in Moradabad were not worried without a reason.

In the three States of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the BJP can hardly hope to repeat its 2014 performance of 62 of the total 65 Lok Sabha seats in 2014.

But finally, there is not even the usual charm of the elections that Lalu Prasad provided year after year in Bihar with his rustic magnetism, or the magnificence of the late J Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu. What 2019 will probably be remembered for is a political discourse unprecedented in its toxicity, and the extraordinary misuse of state machinery to target political opponents.

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