There are a lot of people who are fretting and fuming about the Cabinet picks of the President-elect Donald Trump.
If for the last two months folks were losing sleep over the wild and racist rants of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) crowd, the next 60 days leading up to the swearing-in, on January 20, 2025, will be spent on how the transition team goes about naming senior administration officials.
The American media is less focused now on how Kamala Harris and the Democrats were totally clueless of the stakes for November 5; but it is somehow on overdrive on the kinds of people Trump has chosen for his second term.
Intentions clear
And here is a simple fact: right through the campaign of 2024 and even before that, Trump had never hidden his intentions on the kind of policies that were in store, and by extension the personalities that could lead various departments.
Perhaps the only consensus of a “good” pick has been on the incoming White House Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles. A confidante and campaign manager Wiles apparently had only one pre-condition: that she will control the “clown car” seeking direct access to the Oval Office. The apprehensions of the incoming extremism aside, the choice of Wiles has signalled that Trump desires to avoid the mistakes of his first term which was essentially a revolving door Presidency.
Before signing off on what a second Trump four years would or could look like, a few things need to be kept in mind: First, Trump had no use for the Washington Establishment and was always talking about cleaning the “swamp”.
But as he found out between 2017 and 2021, it is easier said than done. Given the constitutional and political constraints, the White House has to play ball with Congress, not just in the confirmation process but also in getting through legislation.
President-elect Trump may want to use the recess procedure in the Senate to push through some of his nominees, especially the so-called controversial ones; but there is a legislative way of keeping the Senate in session without a recess. This is a procedure that the Democratic leadership in that chamber could use to put a brake on hopes. Recess appointments are generally frowned upon as it only sets up a closer scrutiny down the road.
Second, a fine line would have to be made between campaign rhetoric and the dawn of reality. In the case of Trump this would have to do with illegal immigrants numbering about 13 million or 25 million going by the accounting of Trump.
One estimate is that deportation will cost around $300 billion which does not include the legal costs of fighting it through the judicial layers.
But forgotten in this heated deportation rhetoric is that Trump’s first emphasis has always been on those criminals and hoodlums who have made their way into the US through the southern border.
Yes, Trump has put illegals on notice. But at this stage to read too much into what is in store for students, tourists, H-1Bs, green cards and citizenship is premature.
Mid-term elections
Third, Trump may have a disdain for the politics of Washington, but Republicans in the capital city who have been for years, if not decades, on Capitol Hill, and who wish to see their careers continue for some more time will be a sobering cushion.
As it is, many are looking at November 3, 2026, when the mid-term elections are due where the party in the White House generally loses. But any rash policy initiatives could upset the balance of power in the House of Representatives, perhaps even in the Senate, leaving Trump with only the White House for the next two years.
The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations