There is strange paradox between agriculture and climate change. On the one hand agriculture and forestry and other land use contribute over a fifth of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions exacerbating natural disasters, and on the other, UNFCC estimates a damage of over $108 billion to crops and livestock from natural disasters between 2008 and 2018.

Being a perpetrator and victim of climate change, the agriculture sector needs unconventional thinking and an innovation mindset to break this cycle. A third of the world’s food supply (80 per cent of developing world’s) produced by smallholder farmers is at risk from climate change. Juxtapose this with an expected increase of 60 per cent in global food demand by 2050 and we have a brimming volcano of food scarcity.

As the rest of the world is talking about Industry 4.0 and artificial intelligence, the world of agriculture cannot be left behind and needs to examine the following aspects afresh:

Technology for transformation: The relationship between technology, nature and humans is often projected as being at loggerheads especially in new frontiers such as gene editing, mechanisation and chemical use. The realities of the fickle climate world need a re-examination of polarised positions (we saw the pitfalls of only organic approach in Sri Lanka) and explore a redesign of innovation systems (example, patents for new crop varieties). This also requires blending of capital (public and private) to support food security and climate resilience-focused agricultural innovations.

Policymaking — focus on tomorrow not today: The policy priorities need a new equilibrium, shifting focus from minimum support price to how farming as an enterprise can be made profitable and climate proof. This may require embedded financing models, unlocking carbon credits, and new direct producer to consumer bridges, as well as social security measures in the form of living income commitments, micro-equity for farming as an enterprise and climate financing for innovation adoption. Unless farming is made future ready, less risky and profitable, climate change readiness will continue to suffer and food scarcity in future is imminent from abandoned farms.

India’s unique position: India’s position as a top agricultural commodity exporter and its large population highlight its vital role in global food security. There is also a significant thrust on setting up FPOs to help farmers organise themselves and engage with market forces. Innovations in business models, technology and financing are key to benefit from this interplay of endowed agribusiness potential, youth energy, spirit of cooperation and start-up potential that can act as a counterforce to disruption from climate change and offer new ways of addressing food security issues.

Solutions to the burgeoning problem of climate change and resultant threat to global food security cannot come without wholehearted participation of the world’s estimated 500 million small farms and its 1.2 billion young people. India’s growing prominence in the business and financial world, a large captive base of small farms and demographic benefits offers optimism as a potential innovation hub to solve for this paradox.

The writer is an international development expert

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