News despatches from Afghanistan point to at least three disturbing features. First, the continued high-handedness of the new regime towards anyone who dares to expect a modicum of human rights and protests against its questionable actions, including the ban on women from entering educational institutions.
Second, Taliban-IS Khorosan (a splinter from the ISIS) hostility is now sky-high, accounting for several violent incidents in Afghanistan directed at Shia religious places, and which have internationally brought a bad name to the country and hit foreign assistance heavily. And third, there is a crisis in the economy due to the dwindling foreign exchange reserves, and the non-availability and poor distribution of foodgrains. The head of Islamic Bank of Afghanistan has said the financial system in the country faces “an existential crisis”, as the population panics.
The decision of both the World Bank and IMF to halt assistance has compounded the distress of a country that is nearly fully dependent on foreign aid as all productive internal economic activities, except opium farming and drugs trade, have ground to a complete halt. Statements by the Taliban that the US will provide humanitarian aid indicate they are aware of this reality and are willing to talk to and make deals with their sworn enemy.
The global community faces a horrific choice — to aid or not to aid the brutal Taliban regime on which it has no leverage and, left on their own, the Taliban can perpetrate worse atrocities.
The Taliban could face food riots and uprisings from the public or from within their ranks if they do not bring peace and governance in the country and the capital they now rule. Foreign sympathisers, even the deep-pocketed China, can hardly bankroll and give handouts to the Taliban and the Afghanis for too long.
The Central Asian republics of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are miffed at the Pashtun-led Taliban, which has sidelined the powerful tribes, clans and ethnic groups with deep ties to those countries, and who make up nearly 50 per cent of the population. If the northern regions of Afghanistan bordering these former Soviet states, now in close military and economic alliance with Russia, continues to simmer, a Taliban victory could be pyrrhic and more bloodshed, war and chaos could ensue.
Not wanting Afghanistan and the region descending into another conflict or become an exporter of terrorism once again, Russia is using all its leverage in the region to prepare its neighbours for defence while using diplomatic channels to bring Taliban into the mainstream.
Both could dangle the prospects of gas pipelines, stake in minerals mining, transit and trade with the whole of Central Asia and to Russia, for and through Pakistan and Afghanistan to reduce Afghan dependency on opium farming and drugs trade.
Russia has signed an agreement to finance and build the Karachi-Lahore gas pipeline which will bring LNG gas from Arabian sea terminals to the interior of Pakistan and take the country towards greater energy sufficiency. Pakistan is thus succeeding to curry Moscow’s favour in the vacuum left by the US withdrawal. This creates an opportunity for Moscow to influence Islamabad towards stability, peace and security.
India’s diplomatic stance
It is time for India to take some leaves out of the Russian book on diplomacy and start being proactive. While the Russian forces have been engaged in lethal combat in Syria against fighters supported by Turkey, Moscow has continued to build a gas pipeline, lifted all sanctions on trade, allowed the flow of millions of tourists and supplied S-400 air defence systems to Turkey. Moscow is well-aware of the reality in Pakistan and Afghanistan too, but it has chosen to adopt the maxim of “hold your friends close, your enemies closer.”
This is where the India-Russia ‘Privileged Strategic Partnership’ should be put to use. India should actively support the completion of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, which is supposed to bring gas to India and Pakistan. The gas will originate from the Galkynysh Gas Field in Turkmenistan. The Chinese National Petroleum company already has a 30-year concession to develop and exploit this gas field, which is the fifth largest in the world.
China needs Indian participation and market to build this pipeline. Russia can well be a guarantor and stakeholder and play an important role in the gas corridor from Turkmenistan, through Afghanistan and Pakistan which can also become a trade route. India holds an important card — it is the largest market for Central Asian gas. The Taliban are no doubt going to facilitate the gas pipeline through Afghan territory for the benefit of their allies. This creates the grounds for India to engage in economic diplomacy with all stakeholders. The message that India can provide steadiness and long-term stability to the Afghan economy through trade and transit must be driven home hard.
Pakistan and Taliban will get to know soon that there is more to be had from gas pipelines and secure trade routes to India than going with a begging bowl to Western powers or China.
Being jihadist fighters is one thing, but ruling a country is quite another. The reality of an empty treasury, and the inability to pay the armed forces/bureaucrats, maintain borders, or run public services will soon hit hard. Even the Pashtun mujahideen have to eat — they cannot live off uniforms and steel left behind by the US. Their patience with the warlords will be running thin very soon now that there is no common enemy to mobilise and motivate them.
Put simply, Afghanistan has retreated into a cold freeze resembling the middle ages, and its isolation will be impregnable were it not for the economic reality
Raghavan is a former CBI Director and a former High Commissioner of India to Cyprus, and Goyal is an international security analyst who lives in Europe