With Tata Motors’ electric vehicle (EV) Tiago priced at less than ₹9 lakh, the battle among competing models is hotting up. Petrol and diesel cars will also face the heat as the price difference between them and EVs shrink, and when EVs add features like fast charging, extended range, etc.

With these developments, everyone looks happy: the EV makers, consumers, and the government. EVs are considered necessary for cutting fossil fuel consumption and pollution, thereby reducing damage to humans and the environment. The push is global, yet not everyone agrees with the pace.

At the 2021 UN’s Climate Change Conference, commonly referred to as COP26, held in Glasgow, Scotland, in October-November 2021, six automobile manufacturers, which included General Motors, Ford, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo, and 30 countries agreed to phase out the sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 worldwide. But there were notable dissenters too. Toyota, Volkswagen and Nissan-Renault did not join the pledge. The US, China and Japan were also absent. Not everyone is sure of the timeline for consigning all petrol and diesel vehicles to the scrapyard.

Are EVs being pushed too fast, riding on billions of dollars of investments. Here are a few issues that remain relevant as EVs get a big push to transition from petrol and diesel cars to EVs.

One, not enough raw material available for making EV batteries: EVs use lithium-ion batteries. The four critical raw materials for making them are cobalt, lithium, natural graphite and manganese. Lithium reserves will be exhausted in less than three decades at the current mining rate. All the lithium available in the mines may produce EVs that may replace less than 20 per cent of petrol and diesel cars.

The cobalt, lithium, natural graphite and manganese mines are concentrated in a few countries. For example, 80 per cent of world cobalt reserves are in DR Congo, Australia, Cuba and the Philippines. Also, over 82 per cent of lithium reserves are in Chile, Australia, Argentina and China. More than 81 per cent of natural graphite reserves are in Turkey, China, Brazil and Madagascar, while 90 per cent of manganese reserves are in South Africa, Brazil, Australia and Ukraine.

About 20 per cent of Congo’s cobalt comes from artisanal mines, where 40,000 children work in hazardous conditions.

Two, China has a vice-like control over each stage of EV-making: Even though most raw materials reserves needed for EV batteries are located outside China, China is moving ahead and has bought the largest lithium mines in Australia and South America.

Most raw material-producing countries do not have the expertise to process them. So, despite the fact that China does not produce lithium, it processes more than 60 per cent of the lithium produced globally. It also processes 65 per cent of cobalt and 93 per cent of manganese. The purified materials enter the battery-making units. Here also, China has a monopoly. China makes three out of four batteries produced globally.

Over 100 Chinese battery units make 60 per cent of the cathodes and 80 per cent of the anodes used in the lithium ion cells. China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL), the world’s largest manufacturer of EV batteries, has a 28 per cent global market share. China plans to make EV chassis with batteries and motors for the world. Existing auto-makers should be content with making seats and car bodies of their choice and adding their brand name.

Carbon footprint

Three, EVs are less green than we are led to believe: An EV may not emit pollutants during running. But each production stage, from mining to dispatch, leaves a big carbon footprint.

EVs are heavier than standard vehicles, and the battery contributes to half the weight of an EV. A typical lithium car battery weighs 500 kg. It uses about 12 kg of lithium, nearly 15 kg of cobalt, 30 kg of nickel, more than 44 kg of copper, and 50 kg of graphite. It uses about 200 kg of steel, aluminium and plastic.

Mining, extraction, transport and processing of these materials lead to the release of pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2), leading to air and water pollution. Imagine the increase when EVs are produced on a large scale.

Four, need for an honest evaluation of life cycle impact: Britain’s ‘dash for diesel’ would be an apt example. Acting on select voices led the UK in 2001 to give a tax break to diesel cars on industry advice that diesel cars emit less CO2. This led to a big switch. By 2015, the number of diesel cars jumped from 1.6 million to 11 million. But soon, everyone realised that while diesel vehicles emitted less CO2, their fumes were more toxic, leading to smog and significant health concerns in cities.

Five, lower adoption of EVs with lithium ion battery: Large auto firms realise the limitations associated with EVs with lithium ion batteries. Also, large, heavy, expensive batteries make EVs less fit for providing a mass transit solution. EVs could usually be the second car in the garage. Reasons include high upfront cost, limited range, long time to charge batteries, and not many charging points.

For the Government, the safety issue is essential. EVs are heavier than regular cars; they will cause more road tears and kill more people in accidents. We have already seen exploding batteries in electric scooters.

Our auto sector contributes to about 40 per cent of manufacturing GDP and employs few million workers in the factories and garages. EVs will destabilise all.

Research for an alternative to lithium ion batteries suggests a possible breakthrough in the early next decade. If new batteries could make energy green and cheaper than fossil fuels, they will be a game-changer and must be embraced. Till then, let EVs evolve on their own without government subsidies.

Srivastava is a former Indian Trade Service officer, Kamar is Senior Research Analyst at IFPRI, and Jadhav is Senior Research Fellow at Ministry of Commerce and Industry