Is the world teetering on the brink of a devastating nuclear war? Russia says Ukraine fired six US-made ATACMS missiles at a target in its Bryansk border region, marking a dangerous escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. The strike comes as President Vladimir Putin has approved an updated nuclear doctrine expanding the conditions for using atomic weapons to “bring it in line with the current political situation.”
The ratcheting of tension follows lame-duck US President Joe Biden’s decision to up the ante by allowing use of American ATACMS missiles that can strike up to 300 km into Russia. The fear of nuclear conflict has not loomed this large since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
Putin has warned any attack deep into Russia using US long-range missiles could trigger a nuclear response. The Kremlin views the US move as a significant escalation, claiming the ATACMS missiles can only be operated by US troops, making direct American involvement inevitable.
This growing tension is fuelling fears globally. Social media users have been sharing dark humour, drawing parallels to the chilling Cold War-era spectre of nuclear war. One of the scariest jokes shows George Orwell reading a book entitled “2024” wearing a look of palpable shock and horror.
Why has the Biden administration suddenly raised the stakes? One view is it is trying to tighten the noose and corner Putin into returning to the negotiating table and strike a fast peace deal before Biden leaves office. Alternatively, others argue it’s an attempt to prevent Donald Trump from pulling support for Ukraine when he becomes president. Trump has claimed he would bring the war to an end within 24 hours of taking office, though it’s unclear how this would work without major concessions to Russia, such as freezing current battle lines — that means the Russians would end up holding on to about 20 per cent of Ukraine. Besides that, Ukraine would have to give up on joining NATO for the foreseeable future and there would have to be a demilitarised zone to keep the two armies apart.
Might it be a loss of face for Trump to start his term with, what could be interpreted as an American foreign policy defeat? That could be a huge danger for the president who likes to portray himself as the toughest guy on the block. And the US military would certainly not be pleased with letting the Russians come out on top.
Where does Europe stand in all this? Trump showed in his first term he’s got scant regard for the European Union or even Europe’s top nations like Germany and France. This time the message will be even clearer: Europe’s on its own. He’ll squeeze them to pay more for NATO and make it very clear they aren’t part of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) project. He’s also said to be attempting to tempt Britain into a trade deal with the US to ensure it doesn’t move closer to Europe.
Peace mission
One player on a peace mission is Turkiye’s Recep Erdogan who says he’s been talking to both sides to bring them together. However, any hope for peace seems distant, especially as Russia launched a massive attack over the weekend, deploying 120 missiles and 90 drones, crippling significant portions of Ukraine’s power grid.
Beyond Europe, global instability continues to grow. Israel is escalating its strikes from Gaza to Beirut, and tensions with Iran remain high as the Houthis, with alleged Iranian support, attempt attacks on international ships. In his last term Trump gave in to a cherished Israeli dream by moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. Will he play the same game in his second term and allow Israel to evict the Palestinians from Gaza and make it part of the Greater Promised Land?
Then there are the Iranians. The Iranians have played it cautiously even when they were bombed by the Israelis. They know a Trump administration would love to keep the Saudis happy and impose even tougher sanctions on them.
During the Cold War, the Russians and the Americans kept a respectful distance as they manoeuvred for advantage behind the scenes. But in those days, the memory of World War II and Hiroshima and Nagasaki’s dreadful destruction was still fresh in every leader’s mind, John F Kennedy stood firm during the Cuban Crisis and eventually Nikolai Khruschev backed down.
Today’s leaders have lost the overwhelming fear of nuclear devastation and believe smaller tactical nukes can keep destruction to an acceptable level. This reckless amnesia is making the world an infinitely more dangerous place.