There could be more to the Centre dropping its move to amend the 2013 land law than meets the eye. The Congress, Trinamool Congress and Janata Dal (United) are projecting this as a victory for farmers. But they could be missing a different macro reality — the impact of a deficient monsoon on land prices. If land values dip in regions that generally invite investment interest, an amended law to expedite acquisition may not be needed for now.
As of date, 18 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions have received 20-59 per cent less rainfall than normal. Apart from the Gangetic plain, all of Maharashtra except Vidarbha, northern and coastal Karnataka, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, eastern Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Gujarat — in other words, the industrial heartland — have been affected. Data on ‘non-MSME’ investment proposals compiled by the Secretariat of Industrial Approvals shows that Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana) have, in value terms, attracted over 50 per cent of the proposals submitted since 2002. In terms of number of proposals, Maharashtra (8,389), Gujarat (5,909), Tamil Nadu (4,047) and Andhra Pradesh (4,320) are ahead of the rest, with 51,419 large industry proposals submitted till March 31, 2015.
Chhattisgarh accounts for nearly 15 per cent of the total investment proposals of about ₹97 lakh crore, while Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh each account for 8-9 per cent. Orissa has been the leading State, accounting for 16 per cent of the proposals received in value terms over a 13-year period. The governments of drought-hit Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh may start creating ‘land banks’ for large investors. Farmers will be displaced without the opposition parties taking any notice.
Senior Deputy Editor