US President Donald Trump’s offer earlier this week to mediate between India and Pakistan on Kashmir has raised more eyebrows than it probably should have. It wasn’t unprompted; Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, visiting the US, said he would request Trump’s help in resolving the issue, to which the President replied saying he would help and had been asked to do so by Prime Minister Modi as well.

The government has insisted that no such request was made, and that the issue would only be solved bilaterally. This is unsurprising, given the pattern that has been followed whenever the possibility of any foreign intervention has been brought up — since 2017, China, Iran and Russia have offered to mediate, all denied by India.

In 2017, during tensions near the LoC, China offered to mediate. The same year, Iran’s Ambassador to Pakistan offered help. Earlier this year, in the heat of the Balakot strikes, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow was ready to help. India refused all offers, stating that it wanted to resolve the issues bilaterally.

What’s worth mentioning here is Trump’s penchant for speaking with little or no follow-up. He pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal without a backup plan, and he constantly contradicts himself on trade negotiations with China.

Given the blowback, the policy actors may prefer to lie low on Kashmir (let alone talk about foreign party mediation), to avoid destabilising the already strained relations between India and Pakistan. However, if the US is serious about intervening, one must consider the geopolitical ramifications.

China and Russia may not like it, given their ties with the US, their trade relations with India, and the fact that their own offers were previously turned down. A perceived US ‘tilt’ could hurt some crucial investments into the country, from China and Russia. The US may well have taken this into account. Its offer may be part of a bigger strategy.

T he author is a Sub Editor at The Hindu Businessline.

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