Confusion marks the first advance estimate of kharif 2013-14 pulses production.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses production for the season is 60 lakh tonnes. This may be an under-estimate given that total acreage under pulses this season has been higher by about six lakh hectares at 105 lakh ha, according to the Ministry’s acreage data.
Importantly, temporal and spatial distribution of South-West monsoon has been significantly better this season than in 2012, raising the prospects for better yield.
According to the Ministry’s fourth advance estimate for 2012-13 (released on July 22, 2013), total production of pulses during kharif 2012 was 59 lakh tonnes.
In other words, for the kharif 2013 season, despite a six lakh hectare increase in area planted, the incremental production is a mere one lakh tonnes, that too in a season when precipitation was more than satisfactory.
The confusion is compounded by a PIB release (infographics) that shows kharif 2012 pulses production at 53 lakh tonnes.
Without any doubt, pulses production this season (kharif 2013) ought to be about four lakh tonnes higher than last year’s, given higher acreage and satisfactory precipitation.
Anecdotal evidence bears this out. Trade and industry representatives from different parts of the country point to improved yields. Crop damage is believed to be minimal.
Despite a marked expansion in planted area if pulses production has increased just marginally, the Government’s production strategies and implementation should come in for serious scrutiny.
It is imperative the Agriculture Ministry reviews the apparent anomaly without delay. Revision of crop production data is not uncommon.
Estimate of 60 lakh tonnes (instead of a more realistic higher number) can unnecessarily fan speculative interests, something best avoided.
Suppliers around the world are closely watching Indian pulses production, and would only be too happy to jack up their export prices as India is forced to import pulses to meet the domestic shortfall.
Domestic market prices of pulses also bear out the strong possibility of an underestimate of kharif 2013 crop production.
Even five months after harvest (Rabi 2013), chana still rules at about Rs 3,000 a quintal.
Arrival pressure has kept prices of kharif pulses under reasonable check despite pick up in seasonal demand.
Farm-gate rates of tur and urad are closer to the minimum support price announced for the crops (Rs 4,200-4,300).
The apparent anomaly in pulses acreage and production estimate for 2012 and 2013 kharif season needs to be corrected immediately so that the market gets correct information and the right signals.
Sadly, like last year, this year too, kharif production has fallen far short of the official target of 70 lakh tonnes.
Someone in the government must explain what has gone wrong. To what extent the next Rabi harvest will be able to make up for the kharif shortfall remains to be seen.