A development that has received scant notice in global politics is the democratisation of South Asia, where elected governments rule all the regional countries.

An alliance of Maoists and the Communist Party (UML) was voted to power in Nepal in November-December 2017. Scheduled elections were held this year in Bhutan, where the enlightened Monarchy had voluntarily ceded power to elected governments.

Pakistan saw a change in government recently, when the Imran Khan-led Tehreek-e-Insaf Party was voted to power, though there is evidence that the Tehreek’s victory was “facilitated” by the army. Maldives saw a welcome change in government, with opposition parties joining hands to nominate the soft-spoken Ibrahim Mohammed Solih, to oust the authoritarian and pathologically anti-Indian government of President Abdullah Yameen, in elections held in September.

Bangladesh is now headed for general elections on December 30. This will be followed by general elections in India in April-May next year. Presidential elections are also scheduled in Afghanistan next year. Interestingly, it is President Ashraf Ghani who is determined to hold these elections next year.

The Trump Administration, however, seems keen to thrust a government with Taliban participation on the Afghan people, to facilitate expeditious withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, instead of backing a Constitutionally mandated Presidential election.

After going through the traumatic experience of having its elected government arbitrarily dismissed and its Legislature dissolved by President Maithripala Sirisena, Sri Lanka has seen its elected government and Parliament being restored, with the Judiciary asserting its Constitutional authority.

Presidential and Parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka are scheduled to be held in 2020. But, given the continuing personal and policy differences between President Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, the Island nation appears headed for uncertain times politically and economically, in coming months.

While media and public attention in India has been focused on recent developments in Maldives and Sri Lanka, developments in South Asia will also be seriously affected by what transpires in forthcoming elections in Bangladesh.

The results of the Bangladesh election will have an important bearing on the security of India’s North-East. The results could well shape the contours of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism against India, by groups operating from Bangladesh. India has seen a vast improvement in relations with Bangladesh, during the past decade, because of the cooperation and understanding of the Awami League government, headed by Sheik Hasina.

The last decade has seen resolution of the long pending problem of demarcation of India’s borders with Bangladesh and exchange of enclaves, which was completed in 2016. Likewise, the demarcation of the Maritime Boundary with Bangladesh was completed, with a UN Tribunal awarding Bangladesh 19,467 sq km of the disputed 25,602-sq-km sea area in the Bay of Bengal. Sheikh Hasina’s two terms in office in recent years have also seen a remarkable strengthening of anti-terrorism cooperation with India. This involved firm action against Indian separatist groups, which were provided haven and support in Bangladesh, by Khaleda Zia and her Bangladesh National Party, with active Pakistani involvement.

Both India and Bangladesh have acted firmly and jointly against Pakistan sponsored terrorism on their soil by measures like the decision not to participate in the SAARC Summit, which was to be held in Islamabad.

India’s economic cooperation with Bangladesh has increased substantially in recent years, with projects for the supply of over 3600 MW electric hydroelectric and thermal power, by India to Bangladesh. This has been accompanied by substantial expansion in road and rail communication links.

Moreover, under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh achieved an unprecedented rise in rates of economic of growth, with a threefold increase in per capita income and a reduction of people living below the poverty line from 19 per cent to 9 per cent.

Bangladesh is no longer classified as a “Least Developed country”. A booming textile industry and moves to step up growth in areas like pharmaceuticals and IT, have spurred Sheikh Hasina’s optimism, that Bangladesh could soon reach a 9 per cent growth rate.

Hasina has virtually decimated her rival Begum Khaleda Zia and her Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Moreover, the formidable Jamaat-e-Islami has been banned from participating in elections. Begum Khaleda is now in jail, convicted on charges of corruption.

Accusations of authoritarianism against Sheikh Hasina have, however, resulted in the forging of opposition unity. The octogenarian Kamal Hossain, who played a leading role in the Bangladesh Freedom struggle and became a close associate of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, engineered this coalition.

The opposition parties, including Begum Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party and members of the now banned Jamaat-e-Islami, have joined this opposition alliance, labelled as the Jatiya Oikya Front (National Unity Front), to take on the Awami League, in the elections. Pakistan has maintained close ties with the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, to counter the Awami League. Dhaka became a virtual hub of ISI activity directed against India, when the BNP ruled Bangladesh.

The China factor

Sheikh Hasina has welcomed Chinese assistance, including Chinese financing of important infrastructure projects. China in turn, has committed $38 billion in loans to Bangladesh, though Bangladesh officials have made it clear that they have no intention of walking into a Chinese “debt trap,” like Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Bangladesh has, however, welcomed Chinese efforts to find an amicable solution to the issue of return of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar. Sheikh Hasina has herself averred that Bangladesh will not get involved in US-China rivalries stating: “Our foreign policy is very clear. We want friendly relations with everyone. What China and US are doing is between them”.

But, China let the cat out of the bag about its preferences in Bangladesh, when Khaleda Zia met President Xi Jinping on October 14, 2016 during his visit to Bangladesh. A press release issued by the Chinese Embassy in Dhaka after the meeting noted: “President Xi Jinping appreciated that the BNP has firmly maintained a friendly policy towards China for years”.

Despite protestations of “non-interference,” China has given clear indications of its involvement in the internal politics of countries like Sri Lanka and Maldives, where Chinese and Pakistani political preferences have been virtually identical.

Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League are approaching the electorate with a creditable record on economic development, over the past decade. The challenge posed by a united opposition, alleging authoritarian rule, cannot, however, be ignored.

The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan

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