How Pakistani is our Kashmir Valley

Following the visit of Home Minister Rajnath Singh to Islamabad, the time has come for a dispassionate analysis of where we stand, as we prepare for a scheduled visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Islamabad in November, for the Saarc summit. We need to understand the dynamics of internal developments in Pakistan and Pakistan’s foreign policy imperatives today.

I had occasion to meet well-informed Pakistani politicians, former diplomats, academics and retired generals recently. Pakistan is going through difficult and uncertain political times. It is shunned and distrusted by the US and its western allies, regarded as untrustworthy by Gulf Arabs and Iranians alike, and reviled by neighbours Bangladesh, Afghanistan and India for sponsoring terrorism on their soil. Its sole “friends” appear to be China and Turkey, the latter just recovering from a coup attempt.

Pakistan finds scant international support for its territorial claims in Jammu and Kashmir. It faces a hostile reaction from Afghanistan for its efforts to fence the Durand Line, which no Afghan and many Pakistani Pashtuns do not recognise as an international border. There have been escalating tensions and clashes along the Pak-Afghan border as Pakistan tries to regulate cross-border movement by constructing a gate at the Torkham border crossing. It is evident that the army chief, General Raheel Sharif, who is due to retire on November 30 and evidently looks forward to an extension, loathes Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. General Sharif seems determined to get the prime minister ousted on account of the involvement of his two sons and daughter in the Panama bank accounts scandal.

The general, whose uncle and brother were killed in the 1965 and 1971 conflicts, detests India. He has acted independent of the government and parliament in conducting military operations in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan, apart from continuing massacres and illegal abductions in Baluchistan.

It is in these circumstances that the killing of the young Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Burhan Wani led to both the army and Nawaz virtually competing with each other in raising domestic passions, by embarking on a propaganda barrage against India.

Rajnath Singh’s counterpart Chaudhry Nissar Ali Khan, who has his eyes on Nawaz’s job with army backing, was hardly likely to miss the opportunity to appear more hostile than his boss during the meeting of Saarc home ministers.

Moreover, anti-India rallies were organised by the likes of Hafiz Saeed, across Pakistan’s capital. This is the context in which Singh made a blunt presentation about Pakistan’s role as a state sponsor of terrorism and narcotics smuggling. These were, in any case, the main subjects on the agenda of the conference. Singh was also careful not to violate any Saarc conventions. He did not name Pakistan in his speech.

Given the present political climate in Pakistan and the ongoing power struggle between Nawaz Sharif and Raheel Sharif, Pakistan will continue with this charade till the situation in the Kashmir Valley becomes normal.

It will continue its anti-Indian tirade within the country and across the world. The Americans have already called on Pakistan to end support for terrorist groups operating from its soil, in India and Afghanistan.

British columnist Owen Bennett Jones has tendered similar advice in the highly respected Karachi-based Dawn newspaper.

But, underlying all this, I sensed from comments by Pakistani friends that their much-touted Zarb-e-Azb military operations have not only displaced 1.8 million Pashtun tribals from their homes, but also sent some 40,000 tribals fleeing to Afghanistan. Many of them are preparing for retribution across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. There are, predictably, allegations that the intelligence agencies of India and Afghanistan are hand in glove fomenting violence in Pakistan.

It is clear that we should be prepared for a continuing propaganda barrage from Pakistan. We should also prepare for well planned diplomatic and political offensives against Pakistani military actions, excesses and human rights violations during army operations in Baluchistan, the tribal areas of Pakhtunkhwa, bordering Afghanistan, and on the hapless Mohajirs of Karachi. The Mohajirs, after all, migrated from India and still have familial and other ties with India.

It also needs to be noted that Pakistan’s annexation of Baluchistan after Partition was effected by duplicity, deceit and military force. Baluchistan’s ruler, the then Khan of Kalat, refused to accede to Pakistan. His successor also holds that Pakistan is in illegal occupation of the province.

The people of Baluchistan have waged armed struggles against the Pakistani state since 1948. In the most recent and ongoing military conflict since 2003, thousands of Baluch freedom fighters have been killed and an estimated 15,000 people are missing. The army has defied the orders of Pakistan’s supreme court to produce those illegally abducted by it. Baluch grievances are not only political, they are driven by exploitation of their natural resources and denial of equitable employment and other opportunities by the ruling Punjabi elite.

New Delhi also needs to review its approach to dealing with militancy in the Kashmir Valley. While successive governments in Srinagar keep demanding more and more money for projects, especially after the floods, there has to be much more accountability on how these funds are spent.

While it is good to keep the channels of communication open across a wide cross-section of society to convey genuine interest in addressing their grievances, it would be unrealistic to expect anything positive from a high-profile engagement with the Hurriyat.

Two Kashmiri Hurriyat leaders went against the wishes of Pakistan and its proxies — Mirwaiz Mohammed Farooq and Abdul Ghani Lone. Pakistan-sponsored terrorists killed both of them. It is doubtful if the present Hurriyat leaders will, in these circumstances, show the courage to question Pakistan’s orders.

But a carefully calibrated process of engagement with a cross-section of society in Jammu and Kashmir is imperative, with enough political space being given to the chief minister to act credibly. Lastly, the security forces need to carefully review their tactics and imaginatively use minimal force to deal with any situation. We are in for the long haul.

The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan