In many ways, the findings of the CNN-IBN-CSDS-The Hindu Election Tracker survey were not surprising . The NDA, projected to get between 172 and 180 seats and doing better than the discredited UPA (149-157), was a given. Except for the Congress and its allies, very few want to see a UPA-III.
The Congress, which managed to cross the 200 mark on its own in 2009 by getting 206 seats, is expected to limp its way to a maximum of 139 seats if the Lok Sabha elections are held now. And the BJP, in the best case scenario, says this survey, will manage around 164 seats. This will be far short of the 200-seat mark that the saffron party has in mind, as it bets hugely on the Narendra Modi magic to work across India. Others, predicts the survey, will get between 147 and155 seats, good enough to act as major party poopers.
A hung Lok Sabha
If the actual election outcome is even remotely close to these projections (The Hindu did not subscribe to the seat conversion), we have on hand a terribly hung Lok Sabha. The kind of horse-trading that will ensue as each of the two major parties will embark on a do-or-die battle for power beats imagination.
More than the Congress and the BJP failing to impress, what shows up in even poorer light is the “allies” category of the two major political formations.
While in the UPA camp, the Congress’ allies are expected to get a miserable 15-21 seats, the NDA camp is worse off with its allies projected to get a paltry 13-19 seats! This is a major indicator of how both the formations have had trouble keeping their allies and are now virtually shorn to the bone.
While the Congress has lost two big allies such as the DMK and the Trinamool Congress, the BJP has failed to hold on to its most important ally — the JD (U).
All the three parties are now in the “Others” camp, boosting its numbers, but failing to enable the formation of a Third Front government.
No rock show
That is because the regional parties, reveals this survey, are not rocking either. Beginning with the largest State, Uttar Pradesh, the party in power — Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party — is expected to get only 17-21 seats, less than the 23 it got in 2009. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will fall even shorter with 15-19 seats.
While in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is expected to win 23-27 seats, which seems a little too much, going by Mamata’s tantrums, in Bihar, Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) is seen getting only 15-19 seats. This is possible because the JD (U) has parted company with the BJP, a strong contender in the State. But this number might change if Nitish and the Congress do manage to have a pre-poll alliance.
That this is a possibility is seen from the politically-astute Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad suddenly sighting last week a Narendra Modi wave in the country! The RJD, by the way, has been given 8-12 seats, which might be one too many.
In Orissa, Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal is not expected to make any waves either, with a tepid 12-16 seats. And the Left parties, which were trounced in the 2009 election, continue to be near the bottom of the pile with only 22-26 seats.
TN may surprise
A surprising projection from this survey is J. Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK — which swept the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections in 2011 — getting only 16-20 seats. And the DMK, which is in such disarray, being given 8-12 seats.
At the ground level, however, with popular schemes such as Amma’s canteens providing wholesome meals to people at throwaway prices, even 20 seats seems to be a conservative figure.
Closer to 30 might be more like it because neither disenchantment nor anti-incumbency with Amma’s government has set in as yet.
Also, the arithmetic of alliances is very important in Tamil Nadu; so a beleaguered DMK without the Congress and any important ally will find the coming election an uphill task.
Coming to the all-important vote share, the UPA will do badly, as is expected, because compared to 2009 when its vote share was an impressive 36 per cent, this time around it is expected to shrink to 29 per cent, while that of the NDA will jump to 29 per cent from 24 per cent. The “Others” are seen gaining 2 percentage points to take their vote share to 42 per cent.
In this category, the YSR Congress is projected to get 11-15 seats; the Telangana Rashtra Samithi 5-9 seats and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) 6-10 seats.
From the super hurry the Congress leadership is showing in carving out a Telangana state from Andhra Pradesh, we cannot rule out the possibility of the Congress getting on board both the YSR Congress and the TRS nearer the election.
While for the prime minister’s seat, Modi emerges the most popular, he might become a liability to his party when it comes to getting allies.
If Jayalalithaa, a big friend of Modi, gets 30 seats, that will boost the NDA numbers.
The Gujarat Chief Minister will scare away other potential allies such as the TMC and BJD.
Small wonder then that within the BJP there is already speculation that while the party will benefit from Modi’s magic, taking its tally closer to 200, a dark horse —Party President Rajnath Singh rather than MP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan — will subsequently emerge.
To thank Modi for his trouble and take over the show from there under the guise of being a more “acceptable” face that could even bring back the prodigal Nitish Kumar.
While a UPA-III is certainly something the country doesn’t need, a Third Front government with disparate and strong-headed leaders such as Mulayam, Mayawati, Mamata, Jayalalithaa and the like, supported from the outside by either the Congress or the BJP, will be worse. If such a government comes to power, we will see a period of instability and chaos for a couple of years before a mid-term election.
Meanwhile, it will indeed be a “dog’s breakfast”, as a popular columnist observed on a CNN-IBN show on the election survey.
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