Split ‘secular’ vote may help BJP in Bihar

As seven more constituencies of Bihar go to the polls in the second phase on Thursday, leaving 23 more in the State’s total seats of 40, caste and religion continue to dominate the poll scene here.

A resurgent RJD chief Lalu Yadav is busy campaigning for daughter Misa Bharti contesting from the Pataliputra constituency. A confident Ram Vilas Paswan, enthused by an alliance with the BJP, is ushering in his actor-son Chirag Paswan in Jamui.

While Chirag rides on the Modi-led BJP’s popularity, the substantial Yadav-Muslim vote in Pataliputra gives Misa an advantage.

Her father has addressed numerous meetings in her constituency, never failing to remind voters that his

beti was christened post-Emergency by none other than Jayaprakash Narayan. Misa is an acronym for the controversial Maintenance of Internal Security Act.

Some of the high profile constituencies here are Chhapra, where the BJP’s Rajiv Pratap Rudi (Rajput) takes on Rabri Devi (Yadav); Madhepura, where two powerful Yadavs are in the fray — JD(U) chief Sharad Yadav against the RJD’s Pappu Yadav and the BJP’s Vijay Singh Kushwaha (Koeri); and Sasaram, where Lok Sabha speaker Meira Kumar is expected to win.

BJP, the favourite

The main poll issue in Bihar is the “betrayal” of the BJP by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who parted company with the NDA after 17 years, over Modi’s declaration as PM candidate.

All polls are showing a 20+ seat advantage for the NDA, further bolstered by the anti-UPA sentiment throughout the country. Add to this the Modi magic and, in private conversation, BJP leaders forecast “at least 30 seats”.

But spoiling the NDA party is a resurgent Lalu with the Yadavs once again rallying around him, both angry and sympathetic about his imprisonment, loss of MP status and disbarment from contesting.

And then come the 16.5 per cent Bihar Muslims, both angry and terrified at the rise of Modi.

Akhtar Ali, a fruit vendor in Patliputra Colony, expressed this sentiment when he said: “ Lalu ki lanten bahut dino se bujhi padi hei; humusko jala dengey.Aur phir Modi ko bhi rokna hei (Lalu’s lantern — RJD symbol — is lying extinguished for long; we will light it again. And Modi has to be stopped).”

Muslim strategy

Endorsing this Muslim sentiment-cum-strategy, the same evening, JD (U) candidate Akhtar ul Iman, a recent crossover from the RJD, pulled out of the fray in Kishanganj. The move was meant to help the Congress’ sitting MP Maulana Asrarul Haque Mohammad. He made the “sacrifice to stop fascist forces and save the Ganga-Jamuna culture of this minority-dominated district”.

Muslim social and religious groups are all out to ensure the community votes tactically in favour of secular candidates. But the dilemma is there are two “secular” groups — the RJD-Congress combine and the JD(U), which has done a lot of work for Muslims in the past nine years. The splitting of votes in a three way contest will see the BJP through.

Coming to the caste factor, the forward castes — the articulate, powerful group dominating Bihar’s bureaucracy too — constitute about 12 per cent of the electorate.

They were unhappy about Nitish giving a bulk of reservation and control to the backward, extremely backward and women in the panchayats. These communities are glad to consolidate in the BJP’s favour. By co-opting Paswan in its fold, and also giving tickets to backward class candidates, the BJP has turned Nitish’s “coalition of extremes” against the Bihar CM.

But along with the Muslims, the bulk of the backward classes are with either Lalu or Nitish. Among this group, the Yadavs constitute the single largest group at 12 per cent and are the “articulate upper backward”. They are expected to return to Lalu in sizable numbers, even though both the BJP and the JD(U) have put up Yadav candidates.

Then come the Dalits, who constitute around 15 per cent. To complicate matters further, this includes the Maha Dalits or the extremely backward.

Both the Paswans and the Pasmanda Muslims (the most backward and unprivileged among Muslims) come in this category, and Nitish has a support base among the latter.

Women power

“Nitish gave women 50 per cent reservation in panchayats,” said Shaibal Gupta, Member Secretary of the Asian Development Research Institute. Girl students have been given cycles and sanitary napkins. Also, women have been the biggest beneficiaries of the improved law and order situation in Patna.

Notwithstanding this, the young Hindu women I talked to on Patna’s streets had only one chant: “Modi”.