Lucknow is sulking, angry… and confused too, reflecting the mood in Uttar Pradesh. While driving around the mammoth Ambedkar Park, I could see the covered statues of elephants, Ms Mayawati and her mentor Kanshi Ram. What cannot be concealed is the anger of the Dalit Czarina of UP, who has convinced her Dalit followers that this is an insult to ‘Dalit pride'.
In our vote-bank politics of today, playing on their sentiment of being underdogs — but, then, who doesn't feel an underdog in UP… the Muslims, OBCs, upper castes, all feel so — Ms Mayawati has cleverly taken the ‘ khuli mutthi-bandh mutthi ' analogy to coin a new slogan ‘ khula haathi ek lakh ka; bandh haathi sawa lakh ka' . (If the uncovered elephant, the BSP symbol, was worth Rs 1 lakh, the covered one is worth Rs 1.25 lakh).
Anti-incumbency, corruption
But this time, more than slogans will be required to get anywhere near the landslide of 2007. The five-year anti-incumbency, fuelled by precious public funds squandered on statues of herself and elephants, the Rs 10,000-crore National Rural Health Mission scam, (where huge quantities of medicines were bought from vegetable shops!), and other allegations of corruption and high-handedness have kicked in.
The BJP, once an important player, which rode to power in Delhi on the Ram mandir chariot of UP, has been reduced to a pathetic state. The controversy of inducting the scam-tainted Babu Singh Khushwaha apart, at its Lucknow office, angry workers are shouting slogans against the local leadership for selling tickets. “That it needed to import Uma Bharati from Madhya Pradesh to fight its battle in UP says everything about its desperation and bankruptcy in leadership,” says veteran journalist, Sharat Pradhan.
He is amazed at the BJP's naivety of describing Mr Khushwaha as a “tall OBC leader. He was nothing more than the bell-boy of Ms Mayawati; she would ring the bell and he would always appear, any UP journalist or bureaucrat can tell you that. Once, in my presence, when he called a servant to remove two empty glasses, she chided him: ‘Why a servant; you can't remove these?'”
But, then, that is Ms Mayawati's style of functioning. In the last five years, she has been inaccessible to even her own ministers and bureaucrats. Just a handful, such as Mr Satish Chandra Mishra and Mr Naseemuddin Siddiqui, had access to her. The result is, say political observers, she is far removed from the reality on the ground, and exuded confidence when she hosted lunch for the media on Sunday on the occasion of her 56th birthday. “She doesn't have a clue of the ground realities; her support base, across castes and communities, has been eroded because her government fell far short of meeting expectations of those who gave her such a huge victory in 2007,” says a political analyst.
This, coupled with the BJP's sorry state in the party, is expected to help both Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party and Rahul Gandhi's Congress. Prof Anis Ashfaq, Head of the Department of Urdu, Lucknow University, sees early trends tilting in Mr Mulayam's favour.
“The secular intellectual classes are totally disillusioned at the extravaganza of building statues and parks, which can't do anything for the development of UP and its people. They resent the draining of the public exchequer for such meaningless schemes.”
The student and teacher class has also turned against the BSP; students for not allowing union elections in universities across the State, except for the Aligarh Muslim University. Teachers are unhappy that the 2006 UGC recommendation on extending university teachers' retirement age from 62 to 65 has not been implemented by the Mayawati regime. “Several other States have done this, but not UP. Even though Mulayam has not promised to do it, there is expectation he will,” he says.
Enter Akhilesh
Just like the Gandhi scion, Rahul Gandhi, infusing some life into the Congress in UP, as was proved in the 2009 elections, Akhilesh Yadav is seen as a big plus in the SP camp. Young, energetic, easily accessible to the party leaders and mixing freely with the cadres, he has brought in positive change in the party.
His biggest contribution, says Mr Pradhan, is weaning the party away from the perception of a “party for goondas . He put his foot down, not only in refusing an entry to Khushwaha, but also D. P. Yadav. He took on senior party leaders and keeping out such tainted leaders is a positive signal of change.”
Shedding Mr Amar Singh, his Bollywood film and other cronies from the SP, will also go in favour of the party.
Coming to the Congress, not only Prof Ashfaq, but many others in Lucknow, feel that it will do much better than its 22 seats in 2007 elections. “Anna Hazare's flop show in Mumbai shows that the corruption issue will not harm the Congress; and, then, which party is not corrupt? Also, the Rahul influence will certainly help the Congress put up a much better show,” he says.
Crucial Muslim vote
The substantial Muslim vote of 18 per cent is also expected to go largely to the Congress and the SP, even though Muslim leaders are keeping their cards closed yet.
I met the influential Shia leader, Maulana Syed Kalbe Jawad, a member of the All India Muslim Personal Law Board, in his house at 10 pm, just as he returned from Delhi, where he had gone on a troubleshooting mission. The UP Muslims today are not only distressed but absolutely disenchanted with all the parties. They are in a state of confusion and do not know whom to support, he says.
“Nobody has done anything for Muslims. The BSP promised a lot but has done nothing. What has the Congress done about implementing the Sachar Commisison and other reports? We trusted Mulayam but he joined hands with Kalyan Singh. And the BJP is stuck to its purani policies such as the Ram mandir. So the Muslim today is very hesitant… very confused”, says the Maulana.
The suave and articulate Nawab of Shishmahal, Ibrahim Ali Khan, whose ancestors were independent rulers of Kunwa Khera, about 75 km from Lucknow, well before the Awadh rulers, is scathing about the state of the Muslim community. “First of all, who do we describe as Muslims? What is our identity… Shias, Sunnis, OBCs, or what?”
The biggest predicament of Indian Muslims is lack of leadership, he says, and this election too “will be another farce. Ms Mayawati enjoyed a full term with an absolute majority and could have done so much for the State and its people. But what does she do… builds statues, and suddenly starts kicking out her own ministers on charges of corruption, and they are being gratefully grabbed by other parties.”
Instead of trusting any party, Muslims should be given, and exercise the option of negative vote, he recommends.
But everybody agrees about one thing — the Muslim vote is absolutely crucial, and every party is trying to split that vote!
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