It’s a win-win for Jaya

While both the national and social media are busy debating Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi’s lacklustre TV interview and Narendra Modi’s seemingly unstoppable march towards Delhi, interesting developments are taking place in Tamil Nadu.

Here, a determined Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa has made evident her prime ministerial ambition by urging her cadre to win all 40 seats from the State and Puducherry in the coming Lok Sabha polls. She has already firmed up an alliance with the CPI, which has asked for two seats. The CPI (M) will follow suit.

After the alliance was cemented on Sunday, veteran CPI leader A B Bardhan , fell just short of endorsing her for the top post. Answering a question on Jayalalithaa as PM, he said, “If we succeed in the election, the prospect will open up.”

The Jaya factor Jayalalithaa’s chances of sweeping Tamil Nadu have become that much brighter thanks to the bizarre feud in the DMK where elder brother M K Alagiri issued a dire threat, according to DMK chief M Karunanidhi, that his younger brother Stalin’s days were numbered. While the two brothers are slugging it out in the DMK, which has expelled Alagiri, the Congress, in its most pitiable state ever, and likely to draw a blank, is desperately wooing Karunanidhi. Old friend Farooq Abdullah, whose National Conference itself might dump the UPA, met the DMK patriarch a few days ago in Chennai.

At the other end of the spectrum, Modi’s BJP is busy stitching up an alliance to pick up whatever it can get. While Vaiko’s MDMK and the PMK are on board, Captain Vijayakanth, whom the BJP has been wooing rather desperately, is playing hard to get. At his much awaited Sunday rally, Vijayakanth came down on parties that seek votes in the name of “religion and caste”.

The reference clearly was to the BJP and the PMK. While he called both the AIADMK and DMK corrupt, eyebrows were raised at his attacking Alagiri, but steering clear of Karunanidhi and heir-apparent Stalin.

But at the moment, it is Jayalalithaa who is sitting pretty in Tamil Nadu; the Congress, not a force to reckon with in Tamil Nadu over the past 40 years, is in shambles. The DMK is torn apart by sibling wars, and is unlikely to make waves.

The BJP’s best bet was Jayalalithaa; her closeness to Modi is no secret. So without the AIADMK on board, and even with the MDMK and PMK, both spent forces, there is only so much the Modi-magic can achieve here.

For now, it must derive comfort from the fact that while Jaya’s first goal is to be PM herself, her supporting the NDA if that doesn’t happen, is certain. If and when that happens, the country can expect some crackling fireworks as the southern Czarina can give the Gujarat Loh Purush a run for his money when it comes to ego and imperial airs!

A thousand dreams In case Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP prevents the BJP from getting even 180 seats, and regional parties do well, Tamil Nadu can get a serious opportunity to send a prime minister to Delhi through a Third Front. But that will need all the skills, manoeuvring and political machinations that the AIADMK supremo can bring to bear. Because, while throwing her hat in the ring, she will have to contend with regional chieftains and astute politicians such as the Samajwadi Party’s Mulayam Singh Yadav, the BSP’s Mayawati, Naveen Patnaik of the BJD, the mercurial Mamata Banerjee (if she does better than the Left who are now Jaya’s allies) and Bihar’s Nitish Kumar. In this election, a thousand dreams are riding on the possibility of becoming PM.

But while Jayalalithaa holds a strong edge in Tamil Nadu, Mulayam has been weakened thanks to the UP Muslims’ outrage at Muzaffarabad and its aftermath.

Nitish too has an uphill task in Bihar where the BJP will draw blood painting him a betrayer. The West Bengal janata is not really amused by its Didi’s antics either and she is unlikely to sweep West Bengal as she did in the Assembly elections. Mayawati could be the dark horse, but as of now there are no such signs.

At the end of the day, more than any other party, Uttar Pradesh of Ayodhya is essentially BJP’s karmabhoomi , and the Modi magic is likely to work best here, unless UP’s Muslims vote tactically in a bid to fix responsibility for the Gujarat carnage of 2002. But then the community is unlikely to vote as a single bloc for or against any party.

And that is how it should be; hopefully, Indian Muslims have learnt some hard lessons from allowing themselves to be treated as vote banks and hence exploited.

Whatever the outcome of the elections — an NDA or a Third Front government — Jayalalithaa is in the happy position of being on the winning side. Unless… but you need to get your head examined for even thinking that the UPA might return!