In a week, Karnataka goes to polls and with pre-election surveys indicating a simple majority for the Congress, the discredited party has got a breather. A CSDS survey done for CNN-IBN and Week magazine has projected 117-129 seats out of 225 for the party, pointing to a clear majority.
Music to the Congress’ ears would be the ruling BJP getting a paltry 39-49 seats — only a tad better than the 34-44 seats expected for the Janata Dal-S. Former Chief Minister B. S. Yeddyurappa’s Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) is all set to play spoilsport for the saffron party, seen as taking away 7 per cent of its votes and getting, along with the Independents, 14-22 seats.
In elections, even small swings can cause havoc. The Congress’ projected vote share of 37 per cent — a gain of only 2 per cent over 2008 — could get it 38-45 more seats! The BJP is expected to lose a massive 11 per cent vote over its 2008 figure of 34 per cent and, worse, see its seat tally half from 110 in 2008 to 49 at best in this election.
An interesting finding in this survey is that with neither the Congress nor the BJP having a regional leader of any stature, JD-S leader and former chief minister H. D. Kumaraswamy has emerged the most popular choice for the chief minister’s post with 18 per cent votes! So, while the JD-S is expected to get the least number of seats, its leader is the preferred chief minister!
BJP’s woes
The results of this survey would certainly not surprise the BJP, which had come to power with such fanfare in 2008 — the first time it had in a State south of the Vindhyas.
For a party generally regarded ‘North Indian’, it was a justifiable celebration time. Coming to power in Karnataka was interpreted as a signal of its growing influence in the South. But within a short time, the voters became disenchanted with the BJP rule.
The Government, caught up in much infighting, was not able to provide effective administration in a State whose infrastructure was crumbling and even basic services had hit rock bottom. .
Very soon a plethora of corruption charges against Yeddyurappa surfaced, but the party High Command took too long to act against the powerful Lingayat leader.
After his ouster and, at his behest, Sadanand Gowda was brought in. But he, too, was changed and the present Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar installed, though it meant antagonising the other powerful caste group of Vokkaligas.
And then the bitter fight between Gowda and Shettar opened a can of worms, plunging the BJP’s image even further among Karnataka voters.
One more survey by Headlines Today and C-Voter earlier this month gave the BJP a slightly better prospect, even while projecting the Congress as winner. It gave the BJP a slightly better 26 per cent of votes with 52 seats against 118 for the Congress.
Of course, we have to remember that in such surveys a margin error of 2-3 per cent is possible.
That’s why pre-poll survey results very often go horribly wrong!
Both the surveys show that Yeddyurappa, who will take away 7-8 per cent of the votes, is all set to hurt the BJP grievously in the Karnataka polls. Small wonder that a savvy leader like Uma Bharati — who, despite her rough edges, has her ear close to the ground — has said that the party would benefit only if Yeddyurappa returned. Interestingly, both the surveys found that if the Gujarat strongman Narendra Modi, who is clearly emerging as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, campaigned widely in the State, the BJP’s prospects could improve.
Enter Modi
Well, Modi chose to address just one meet in Bangalore on Sunday. From the turnout, in a city notorious for its low voter percentages (in 2008, the country’s IT capital saw only 45 per cent polling) and the huge applause and cheering he received, it appears that had Modi been unleashed on Karnataka’s voters a little earlier and at more elections meets across the State, he might have helped at least to prevent a shameful defeat that seems to stare the BJP in the face.
But there are several factors here. One, more than the rural, it is the urban, educated middle-class voter — totally disenchanted with the UPA regime and its indecisive ways — who is getting drawn towards Modi’s firm and no-nonsense style of governance.
Two, Modi’s spin doctors have perfected the art of packaging and presenting him as a charismatic, incorruptible leader who is the only answer to our collective woes. Three, obviously Modi has worked hard on his oratorical skills, which were decent to begin with.
The biting sarcasm and the ruthless going for the Congress jugular (the Nehru-Gandhi family), the pauses and the punches that he packs in his speeches, and the details of the economic miracles only he can bring about are just right to dazzle his audience.
Profitable business
Meanwhile, the figures disclosed by the Karnataka Election Watch, which analysed the affidavits of 347 candidates who had also contested the 2008 Karnataka elections, show that politics is indeed a profitable business.
It found that the average asset increase of these candidates in the last five years has been over Rs 6.25 crore or 79 per cent. No prizes for guessing that the top three candidates with highest declared assets are from the Congress. Priya Krishna from Govindrajnagar constituency has declared assets worth Rs 910 crore; N. Nagaraju from Hosakote constituency is worth Rs 470 crore and Anil Lad from Bellary City consituency Rs 288 crore, says its report. In the BJP, N. S. Nandiesha Reddy from K. R. Puram constituency is worth Rs 118 crore.
And parties continue to patronise those facing criminal charges. While the Congress has fielded 55, the BJP is not far behind with 48. Most shocking, when there is so much outrage over the increasing incidence of rape, two candidates from Yeddyurappa’s KJP have declared that cases of rape are pending against them. Need one say more about the tall talk of our political leaders? Also, if the Congress thinks a victory in Karnataka is an indicator of the national mood, it will be thinking wrong. Period.
(Responses to rasheeda.bhagat@thehindu.co.in )