Maulana Syed Kalbe Jawad, one of the most important Shia leaders in the country and Member, All Indian Muslim Personal Law Board, is not cagey, but genuinely circumspect, when he tells me, seated in his house on a windy and freezing night in Lucknow: “The UP Muslims are totally undecided on who to support in this election. They are not confused, but hesitant, about backing this party or that, because, honestly, no party has done anything for their welfare.”
Muslim youth suffer a sense of insecurity, he says. “The police can knock any time on their door, pick them up under false charges, imprison them. The courts may declare them innocent after five years, but unki zindagi toh barbaad ho gayi (their lives are ruined for ever). And those who wrongly implicated them are not punished.”
Of the four main contenders in UP, the BJP is the only one without any designs on the substantial 18 per cent Muslim vote — Maulana Jawad claims it is actually 20 per cent. Of the other three — the Samajwadi Party, Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party — vying for Muslim vote, the SP has really promised them the moon this time — 18 per cent reservation.
Game changer
Every political analyst in UP agrees that Muslim support can be a game-changer in this election. If the anti-incumbency factor really kicks in, as SP chief Mulayam Singh is desperately hoping, he is banking on that extra push from Muslims to make his the single largest party. While Ms Mayawati might hold on to at least 18 per cent of the BSP's traditional Dalit vote bank (21 per cent), the SP will bank on the MY (Muslim and Yadav) combination. “Ironically both the Congress and the SP are banking on Muslims for their revival in UP and will split this vote,” says veteran journalist and political analyst Sarat Pradhan. “If the Congress gets a chunk of Muslim votes, it will decide who forms the government.”
Even among Muslims, he predicts, the old and the young will vote differently, just as “the old and the young Dalits will do, too. While older Muslims might vote for SP, younger Muslims will go to Rahul, just as older Dalits will stay with Mayawati but a percentage of younger Dalits might be attracted by Rahul,” he adds.
More promises
On the Congress-led UPA government's move to create a 4.5 per cent sub quota for Muslims within the OBC quota, Maulana Jawat smiles: “Apart from the OBCs, other Muslims are poor, backward and unemployed, too. Today, the plight of the Muslim in the general category is worse.” And, he argues, what is the big deal in giving Muslims some assured reservation in the OBC quota… “a quota which includes somebody like Mayawati, whose declared assets are Rs 87 crore. We would want quota based on economic criteria.”
He echoes the Muslim refrain reverberating through UP's streets, when he says: “No party is genuinely interested in working for Muslims. What has the Congress done about implementing the Sachar committee recommendations even after five years? Rahul Gandhi se kuch ummeed thi , he is both educated and cultured. But till now he hasn't said anything that will attract us to the Congress. Even Mulayam Singh only gives us lip service; the last time we trusted him, he shook hands with Kalyan Singh.”
The Shia leader is even more bitter with Ms Mayawati. “Zardosi and chikan workers of UP are in a sorry state. I have written her five letters but she has done nothing.” The same is true of his pleas to her government for reviving Urdu language. “Today Sanskrit is not a spoken language, Urdu is. But you've made Sanskrit compulsory but won't do the same with Urdu.”
Maulana Jawad adds that barely 10 per cent of the funds meant for programmes for Muslims reach the community. “Today our children don't get good jobs because they aren't well qualified. But higher education is so costly, and how can the poor Muslim afford it?”
Lack of education, leadership
Prof Anif Ashfaq, Head of the Department of Urdu, Lucknow University, agrees that the biggest problem of Muslims is lack of education, “which leads to economic instability and so many other problems.” He says if the Sachar Committee recommendations had been implemented properly, “Muslims could have really benefited.”
Another huge problem is lack of leadership, he says. Also, it would make sense to go in for tactical voting; “vote for a winnable Muslim candidate irrespective of the party that fields him, in order to increase Muslim representation in our legislatures and create a pressure group to solve problems of the community. But this time, I don't see any signals till now that Muslims will indulge in tactical voting.”
He says that BSP hasn't done much for Muslims, “though she has given some grants to Madrasas and its teachers the status of government teachers, but nothing much.” Thankfully no fatwas have been issued yet; not that they work, he adds!
Peace Party
But spoiling the hopes of both Congress and SP and weaning away a chunk of Muslim vote, at least in a small part of Eastern UP, is the Peace Party started by Dr Mohammad Ayub, a prosperous doctor who has managed to also attract many non-Muslims, including former bureaucrats. His argument is that while others have only treated Muslims as vote banks, his party would enable Muslim politicians to get elected and work for community welfare. Amidst charges that he has been set up and funded by the BSP to split the Muslim vote and play spoilsport for both Congress and SP, Dr Ayub argues that just as Kanshi Ram had started a party to give a voice and status to Dalits, he was doing the same for Muslims.
Muslims are expected to influence the outcome of the UP results in at least 130 constituencies where their numbers are concentrated. Keeping this in mind the BSP has fielded 84 Muslim candidates, the SP 75 and Congress 61.
The clamour for Muslim support proves yet again the adage… some of the lowliest can bring to their knees some of the mightiest. But no prizes for guessing who will have the last laugh.
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