Election time is fun time. Always. But much more so when you are trying to gauge the increasingly inscrutable mind of the voter in as large and diverse a State as Uttar Pradesh, which goes to the polls in five phases in February and March. And if your work takes you to a foodie city like Lucknow, which can showcase the best of Awadh cuisine, who would complain?
An appointment with the soft-spoken and articulate Nawab of Shishmahal, Ibrahim Ali Khan, comes with a bonus… an invitation to dinner at his house in the Shishmahal area of Lucknow. It's a wet, windy and freezing evening; the Nawab, whose ancestors were independent rulers of Kunwa Khera, about 75 km from Lucknow, well before the Awadh rulers, has a pleasant surprise in store for me. “I thought you'd be tired of murgi (chicken) and machchi (fish), so let me give you a vegetarian dinner.”
This is good news after a late lunch of chicken curry and
As we polish up the
On the UP Muslims, their plight and the way they will vote, Nawab Ibrahim says: “Today, the Muslims' biggest problem is lack of leadership and guidance. Not understanding the importance of education they end up in Madrasas. The mullahs and maulvis capitalise on the ignorance of our people and lead them down the garden path.” He predicts this election too will be a farce; when with a sweeping majority the BSP chief Mayawati could not give UP decent governance and development, how can the voters hope that the next government will be better? Suddenly “she starts kicking out her own ministers on charges of corruption, and they are being gratefully grabbed by other parties,” he says sceptically.
Bell-boy of Mayawati
The man referred to - Babu Singh Khushwaha - raises a lot of mirth, particularly in journalistic circles. Veteran journalist and political analyst Sarat Pradhan describes him as a “bell-boy of Mayawati; every time she rang the bell, he would appear” and wonders at the bankruptcy in the BJP, which not only embraced him but called him a “tall leader of the OBCs”. Syed Hussain Afsar, another journalist, recalls that in the days before cordless phones, during press conferences Mayawati would answer calls on an instrument carried by Kushwaha on a tray!
We discuss the style of functioning of Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh and Mayawati as Chief Ministers; the former is supposed to be much more accessible. But it appears that Mayawati is constantly in touch with the BSP district secretaries, even though she doesn't care much about her ministers and MLAs.
But Mulayam is considered less kaan ka kacchey (easily incited) compared to Mayawati. Recalling his tenure in an important post under Mulayam as CM during the SP-BSP coalition in 1993-94, a senior bureaucrat says that incited by somebody the CM had transferred the district magistrate of Azamgarh. “He told me he had been wrongly implicated; I just arranged his meeting with Mulayam, who listened to him, was convinced about his innocence and said he couldn't transfer him back but gave him a good posting.”
But Mulayam's major failure, during his two tenures as UP CM - against Mayawati's three - was maintenance of law and order. In 2007, Mayawati was able to get such a landslide because Mulayam's reign had become synonymous with “ goonda raj ”. Says another bureaucrat: “Amar Singh did him great harm, and he lost a lot of goodwill. Mayawati has the image of being a much tougher leader in fighting goonda elements. She almost demolished Raja Bhaiya. So along with social engineering, it was her image as a strong leader who could fight goondas that brought her to power.”
There are those who are willing to play the devil's advocate and say that under the five-year BSP rule, development has indeed taken place. Seated in his office in Bapu Bhavan in Lucknow, I quiz a senior IAS officer who has held important positions in both Mulayam and Mayawati governments. He is considered pro-Mulayam but points out that under Mayawati's reign, UP has seen a lot of development. He points out that on the power front the Mayawati government has begun half-a-dozen big projects; and when that work is completed, power generation in the State will go up to nearly 15,000 MW. “She is right when she says the Centre and the Congress have neglected UP for long years. No new power station had been added in UP for three or four decades. The State was neglected by the Congress for political reasons, and any Congress chief minister who became too popular was removed.”
He gives the example of H.N. Bahuguna, who was forced to resign as UP CM by Indira Gandhi in 1975, and he later joined the Janata government. “Also, agriculture hasn't done too badly under Mayawati's regime,” he adds. But he thinks the credit for NREGA, and the resultant votes, will go to the Congress rather than the SP or BSP.
UP's image problem
Says another IAS officer: “Land reforms have taken place here, and you'll find in rural areas an absence of land-grabbing. People are very aware, and even a small infringement is taken seriously. And despite what the rest of India thinks, some systems work here. Take, for instance, the huge network of roads that UP has.”
He argues that law and order situation has improved too; compared to some of the districts in States like Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand, “where nothing works without the writ of Naxalites, UP doesn't have this problem except for some border areas. I would say UP has avoided the Naxal problem because land issues have been sorted out here.”
He adds that compared to some parts of Western Bihar, where one cannot move without “hordes of police, UP is comparatively safe. Of course, here too there are road hold-ups, but it's nothing like the organised gangs of Bihar”.
Electoral battle
Development issues aside, early trends indicate the main battle is between the BSP and SP, with the Congress playing the role of kingmaker. The BJP, which could have benefited by Anna Hazare's anti-corruption movement, has shot itself in the foot by inducting Khushwaha. There is consensus that neither Anna Hazare nor the Ayodhya issue will help BJP. The Congress, on the other hand, will do better; anyway, it has a terribly low denominator — only 22 seats in 2007 — to contend with. Helping it will be Muslim and a part of the young Dalit, as well as backward class, votes.
Muslims are expected to move away from the BSP back to the SP and the Congress. As Shia leader Maulana Syed Kalbe Jawad points out, in five years the BSP has done little for their welfare, “be it education or employment or promoting Urdu language”. He charges that Mayawati has ignored the several letters he has written to her on this and other issues such as improving the plight of impoverished female Chikan and zardosi workers of Lucknow.
Contemptuous of the sub-quota within the OBC quota promised to Muslims he says: “You are promising us something where even Mayawati, with declared assets of over Rs 87 crore, is eligible!” Rahul Gandhi too, he adds, is yet to come out with any fresh ideas that would attract Muslims towards him. “So the UP Muslim is today hesitant about giving his support to any particular party.”
Lucknow's Muslims have another problem with Mayawati. They feel that by the expansion and beautification of the Dr Ambedkar Park, she is trying to change the topography of Lucknow. “Historically, the city of Lucknow is known for its monuments like the Imambara and the Rumi Gate. Now she is trying to recreate history by making the Ambedkar Park a huge icon of the city, and the BSP government has allowed encroachments near these historic monuments. There is enough legislation under the ASI to protect ancient monuments but the BSP government has deliberately flouted all rules to destroy the ancient culture and icons of Lucknow.”
Ek ajeeb circus
But the best comment comes from Afsar, the journalist: “ Hamara UP ek ajeeb circus hei (Our UP is a weird circus). If you watch the events unfolding here... whether it is the drama of the statues of Mayawati and the elephants, and the shenanigans of Mulayam, or Rahul Gandhi living in Dalit homes, you're reminded of a Manmohan Desai film, or a Rajnikanth movie where for every action there is a violent reaction, or a Cartoon Network clip.”