In his hit film Shahenshah , Amitabh Bachchan likes to practice his English. At one point he looks around and says, “ Arre babua, conphujun to hai utter” (there is utter confusion).
That it is, with knobs on, so educated Indians devoted to the Scottish economy can thank God December 31 is a Saturday.
January 1, 2012 can be used to regain much needed strength. And by the looks of it, they are going to need a lot of it in the New Year.
Except for the cricket World Cup which India won in style with a six off the last ball, that too by the Captain, it has not been a memorable year.
Or perhaps it has, though for the wrong reasons.
Down, down, down
The stock market was badly down, the economy was badly down, the rupee was badly down, the Government was badly down, the Opposition was badly down, many leading politicians were in jail, Sonia Gandhi was in Sloan Kettering, a cancer hospital in the US, Manmohan Singh was a captive of his coalition, and, horror, activists were on all TV channels.
All in all, it has been a perfectly horrid year for everyone except the BCCI, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the AIADMK.
Only three things were up — prices, TMC and the AIADMK. And how!
Most things cost about 30 per cent more on December 31 than it had on January 1. The TMC trounced the unctuous, sanctimonious non-performing CPM from West Bengal. The AIADMK rode the thermal currents released by the DMK's corruption and oppression to a very handsome win.
Naturally the electronic media went berserk. Not a week went by when it didn't get a new bone to chew on.
And while chewing, it disproved the old adage that a dog with a bone in its mouth can't bark. Not only did it bark even more loudly, it also chomped so greedily and noisily that Markandey Katju, recently retired from the Supreme Court and placed in charge of the Press Council of India, wanted to know why Dev Anand's death was front page news. Why not development issues, he asked testily. Many decent people nodded in agreement. He was, after all, only verbalising an angst that many well-off Indians have felt.
Electronic media can be a pain in the fundament sometimes. But necessary, too, because it is that pain which makes everyone stand up and rub the sore spot. Unseemly, perhaps, but necessary nonetheless.
Like Anna's Army or The Hazare Hordes who can be as unseemly as they are necessary. They pointed out to the Government that corruption was not a good thing. Let's have a law that helps catch the corrupt, they said politely at first.
The Government took this badly. How dare you, it asked haughtily.
Then it became nasty.
Then it became devious.
Then it botched.
Then it panicked.
Then it grovelled.
Then it became cooperative.
Then it became uncooperative.
And, finally, it produced Abhishek Manu Singhvi.
He was an improvement on the ever-leering Kapil Sibal but, alas, only slightly.
Why, asked the people, unleash Sibal and Singhvi on us? Why has a simple request about corruption got the government all a-twitter? Why, oh why?
Good question, Pandu . Why indeed?
But we know. They know. Everyone knows.
Will 2012 be better? No
It is unlikely that 2012 will be better than 2011. In fact, despite inflation coming down, it could be a great deal worse.
The basic problem is a new one for India: in many of the major institutions of the State, either no one is in charge or where someone is, it is only a formality.
As a result, many important agencies, like government departments, are not working as they should. And as a consequence, good things are not happening. Nor, going by the way the pieces are laid out, are they likely to.
UPA II has run into a structural problem. It looks all right but it is joined together all wrong. This has made it completely dysfunctional in terms of governance. It is unable to move and therefore paralysed.
This is why 2012 will be worse than 2011. Parliament, ministers, bureaucracy, public sector managers, all have fallen victim to the UPA's structural defect. They are not functioning. And if they don't function, things can't get better. Period.
The solution?
The only solution to the UPA's problem is a fresh general election. It can't be in 2012 because no political party has either the money or the stomach for the fight. All told and taken together, they would need around Rs 7,000 crore for a general election.
But it can't be postponed beyond 2013 either, because India will simply collapse if this tamasha goes on beyond mid-2013.
So what are we likely to see in 2012? Confusion.