Here’s an alternative scenario for what should have happened in Afghanistan: When President Joe Biden took over, he should have thumped his fist on the negotiating table, said he was the new sheriff in town and declared the US wasn’t going anywhere till it got a better deal from the Taliban than the one-sided agreement that had been struck with Donald Trump.

Instead, we have chaotic, panicked scenes reminiscent of the US exit from Saigon with the helicopter hovering above the American mission. Here we had foreigners fleeing to the airport and desperate Afghans falling to their deaths from US military planes after clinging to the aircraft taking off.

Only a few days earlier, even as city after city fell under the Taliban’s lightning offensive, the Americans were nonchalantly declaring the Kabul government could hang on for another three months.

Who’s the happiest at the way the Afghan scenario is unfolding? Unquestionably, Pakistan, where the government is reacting with undisguised glee. The icing on the Pakistani cake came late Monday when a delegation consisting of almost the entire Northern Alliance turned up in Islamabad. As you’ll recall, the Northern Alliance was our long-time staunch ally. To have the Northern Alliance paying obeisance to Pakistan shows where real power now lies.

It’s hard to tell what went wrong with Biden’s calculations. What’s certain is his predictions, notably chances of the Taliban “over-running the country” being “highly unlikely,” are coming back to haunt him and that US intel was wildly out of touch with ground realities.

The bad-tempered, deeply unpopular ex-president Ashraf Ghani stood not upon the order of his going but stealthily slipped out of the presidential palace, according to Russian news agency RIA, with four cars “full of money,” amid questions about whether the US assisted his exit.

In fact, there are a whole lot of questions about how events have played out. Ismail Khan, the warlord known as the Lion of Herat, tamely allowed himself to be taken prisoner (most warlords keep their escape routes clear). Khan was slow to join the battle, prompting speculation his Iranian benefactors told him to stand down. Herat’s near the Iran border and a large chunk of its population is Tajik. Only 10 per cent are Pashtuns like most of the Taliban.

Other warlords like Atta Mohammad Noor and the greatly feared former Afghan vice-president Abdul Rashid Dostum also fled, apparently by the skin of their teeth, from Mazar-i-Sharif. Dostum, probably Afghanistan’s most powerful Uzbek leader, has shifted base almost certainly to Uzbekistan. Noor spoke darkly of a “big and cowardly plot” to capture Dostum and him, saying (of course, via Twitter): “Despite our firm resistance, sadly, all the government and the ANDSF equipment were handed over to the Taliban.” He added: “They had orchestrated the plot to capture Marshal Dostum and myself too, but they didn’t succeed.”

The sudden American departure also helped to hobble the Afghan National Army. The force was already deep in the dumps, crushingly downcast by the precipitous US withdrawal. The army was left with very little ammunition to carry on the fight and also, importantly, hadn’t been paid for months. Its aircraft and helicopters were serviced mostly by Americans who left suddenly.

With a Taliban victory looking inevitable, there existed scant incentive for the army soldiers to fight to the last man. Instead, in a very Afghan fashion, many worked out terms, accepted small sums of money, handed over their weapons, and were allowed to depart for their home villages. Here we must ask ourselves: in the face of an almost certain Taliban victory, why would anyone lay down their lives in the anti-Taliban fight?

The rush to exit

The Americans added to the demoralisation in numerous ways by accelerating their rush to the exit. On early July, the Americans startled allies and foes by flitting from Bagram Airbase in the dead of night, even shutting off the electricity before they left. Bagram had been the fortified US headquarters for over 20 years and should logically have been the last base to be abandoned. Some of the terrible Kabul airport scenes might have been avoided if the Americans had hung on to Bagram.

It’s completely unknown what Taliban Mark-2 will be like. The older leaders, like Abdul Ghani Baradar, have almost certainly become less relevant. Baradar, who was briefly tipped to become interim president, was captured in 2010 and spent eight years in a Pakistani jail. He was released and sent to Doha which the Taliban has made its headquarters but always kept under close watch. Many of the older leaders are past their prime. The younger leaders are still relatively unknown figures.

India’s position

And what about India’s position amidst the Afghan chaos? India has almost certainly been dealt out of the game for now. Whether that’s by Pakistani design or our own bad moves is the crucial question to be answered. We did good works, building dams and, very conspicuously, the new Parliament. But did we fail to keep our bridges intact with our allies and other players like Dostum? Should we have made approaches to the Taliban a long time ago? Instead, we’ve moved only after a Taliban victory became inevitable. Whatever the reason, the fact is Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran’s views are all being taken into account. It’s unlikely we’ll be able to say the same anytime in the near future.

Still, let’s not imagine the Russians and the Chinese are any happier than we are about the Taliban’s return. The Russians are the big brother for the Central Asian republics they once ruled. All are wary of the Taliban and Islamic revivalism. The Chinese don’t want trouble in Xinjiang with their Uighur Muslim minority. Remember that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which is fighting for Uighur rights, is battling alongside the Taliban.

The US, too, comes out of the Afghan imbroglio looking considerably diminished, cut to size by Taliban fighters. It has allies around the world but the question that will be asked is how Washington can help any of them. That’s also true for India as it moves closer to the US. India has openly voiced its view that while it has moved alongside the US in the Quad’s maritime manoeuvres, its views aren’t being taken into account in places like Afghanistan. Here we’ve been comprehensively outsmarted by Pakistan. The challenge in the months ahead will be to get ourselves back into this new version of the ‘Great Game.’