Ukraine’s search for a political identity

Back in 2011, I spent just over two weeks travelling round Ukraine, the second largest country by area in Europe after the Russian Federation, which has grabbed global attention in recent months following a wave of demonstrations in the capital, Kiev, against the government of President Viktor Yanukovych.

While it was towns and cities popular with tourists that I visited, the deep divisions that existed in society became quickly evident, particularly attitudes towards the former Soviet Union.

The Ukraine has long been valued for its strategic position and enormous natural wealth: it was known as the bread basket of the Russian empire, more than fifty per cent of its land remains under highly productive agriculture, and it possesses extremely rich and complementary mineral resources, including iron ore, coal and some of the world’s richest deposits of manganese-bearing ores.

Not surprisingly, over recent centuries Ukraine has found itself caught up in conflict, often being passed from one power to power, whether Russia, Romania or Poland. However, its relationship with Russia and the former Soviet Union has proved particularly divisive. Horrors such as the “Holodomor”, the name for the period in the early 1930s when millions starved to death in a famine instigated by Josef Stalin’s collectivisation policies, led to deep-seated hatred of the Soviet Union in the western part of the country. During the Second World War, as the country became the frontline of the battle between the Red Army and the Nazis, and the Germans took over Kyiv, some Ukrainians collaborated with the Nazis in the hope of achieving independence.

That this antipathy to Russia, particularly in Western Ukraine, had lingered into the post-Soviet era became obvious to us as we travelled about. In the ancient city of Lviv, near the Polish border, we saw numerous billboards equating the hammer and sickle with the swastika. “The Nazis gave our children chocolates but the Soviets killed them,” declared a young taxi driver, seemingly oblivious to the well-documented war crimes committed by the German army during occupation (eight to ten million Ukrainians are estimated to have died during this period).

Others we came across in the city were particularly optimistic about the impact that Euro 2012 football championship could have the following year on relations with Europe, with Lviv, as a host city, set to welcome visitors from across the region.

Things couldn’t have been more different further south in the port city of Sevastopol, still home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, where that country’s White, Blue and Red flag adorned many buildings and cars, and where people spoke to us of their hope that the city or country would once again be part of Russia and “glorious” again. If a tourist could glean the tensions so easily on a brief trip, they must be particularly deep and persistent.

Ten years on from the Orange Revolution that many had hoped would help the country put its troubled past behind it, the country is once again in the grip of political unrest. A protest movement triggered by Yanukovych’s decision in November to back out of an agreement that would have strengthened ties with the EU and (a month later) his $15 billion aid deal with Russia, has swiftly gathered pace.

Government buildings in Kiev have been occupied and several protestors have died in clashes with police. Tensions remain high despite the withdrawal of recently introduced protest laws and the resignation of the entire government of Prime Minister Mykola Aazarov. Yanukovych’s offer of the posts of Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister to the opposition has been rejected.

While an optimist could argue that the crisis should provide an opportunity for the country to tackle its deep-rooted problems, there’s reason for caution. For one thing, there is little unity within the opposition, despite public displays of it, argues Lilit Gevorgyan, an analyst at IHS Global Insight. “They have not come up with a way forward, or a solution to the country’s deep-rooted problems.”

Among the most urgent of these is tackling the country’s inefficient, highly subsidised economy (Ukrainian consumers pay just a fifth of the cost of natural gas, with the rest borne by the state) and its precarious financial situation.

The country’s foreign currency reserves have been rapidly depleted, and while the first tranche of the Russian aid has been disbursed, the programme was recently suspended until the resolution of the crisis. The currency, which has in the past been strongly supported by the central bank, has also tumbled in recent days. Corruption is also rife: Ukraine ranks 144 out of 175 nations on Transparency International’s 2013 Corruption Perception Index.

The highly populist nature of politics gives little hope that any of these problems will be addressed by either side, argues Gevorgyan. As in the past, Ukraine seems to have been caught up in a larger conflict. While the EU has been playing down Russian accusations of interference in Ukraine’s affairs, the importance of its role in a country that is a major gas transit route for Europe is undeniable. Germany’s foreign minister has raised the prospect of sanctions should the political impasse not be resolved.

The EU, already a major aid donor to the country, is mulling extending this, potentially in partnership with the US. A steady stream of European Commission officials have visited the country during the crisis, including its Foreign Policy chief Catherine Ashton who returned this week.

For the EU, the political crisis has provided an opportunity to flaunt the virtues of a united Europe, even as cynicism builds in its own member states.

“Those young people in the streets of Ukraine…are writing the new narrative of Europe,” said President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso back in December. Russia has meanwhile warned Europe to stay out if it, accusing governments of playing a role in the protest movement.

And of course there is India’s burgeoning relationship with the country. Indo-Ukrainian trade, dominated by pharmaceuticals, iron, steel, and fertilisers, reached a value of $3.1 billion in 2012-2013, boosted by a visit by Yanukovych to India two years ago. There are also strong defence links between the two nations: Ukraine is involved in modernising India’s military transport aircraft and provides engines for naval vessels along with military spares.

Some 5,000 Indians, including students, are estimated to be living in the country. There are clear possibilities for an enhanced Indian profile in Ukraine. But much depends on how the current situation in the country plays out in the months to come.