“Decarbonisation” is the holy grail of climate warriors. Global climate negotiations have so far been marked by platitudes and homilies. Developed nations would hector the poorer ones on their climate obligations, while nations like India would argue for “shared but differentiated responsibilities.” At the heart of the diplomatic smokescreen lie emission cut commitments.

While consensus eludes the global community, recent times have seen tangible gains in one segment which is worthy of note. Decarbonisation of road transport has received strong political endorsement, more so among G20 nations. Electrification of mobility is driving this transition. India’s leadership of G20 this year revolves around “LiFE — Lifestyle for environment”.

Global scene

Global trends analysed by International Council on Clean Transportation reveal that light duty electric vehicle (EV) sales stood at 9 per cent of light duty vehicles in 2021 and touched 13 per cent in the later part of 2022. China has crossed the 20 per cent mark, while Europe is close behind. California has unveiled a bold plan of moving to 100 per cent zero emission vehicles by 2035.

The UK has announced that all new cars and vans will be zero emission by 2035, while putting an end to the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030. Germany crossed the one million electric vehicle mark last year. In the heavy-duty vehicle segment, buses are leading the charge. Shenzhen, in China, boasts of the largest electric bus fleet in the world, with over 16,000 buses.

Where does India stand in the pecking order? Nationally, the numbers are modest so far. Overall, 5 per cent of new vehicle registrations were electric in 2022, though in absolute numbers we crossed the one million mark. Mega cities are in pole position, with tier-two and tier-three cities catching up.

In Delhi, more than 10 per cent of new vehicle registrations were electric. The pattern of electrification varies across geographies — in States like Uttar Pradesh, 85 per cent of adoption is led by e-rickshaws, while in Maharashtra, a similar percentage is on account of two-wheelers.

In Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat, more than 90 per cent of EVs are two-wheelers. In Delhi, 55 pe rcent of EVs are two-wheelers, while 34 per cent are a mix of auto rickshaws and e-rickshaws. Adoption of electric four-wheelers is relatively slower — the largest share being in Delhi, Maharashtra, Telangana.

Electrification of public transport has strong government backing. A combination of subsidies for manufacturers rolled out by the Central Government, coupled with a demand aggregation for procurement across cities, helped drive down costs of electric buses. An ambitious plan to induct 50,000 electric buses across the country has been announced under the national bus electrification programme.

Delhi is well on course to inducting 8,000 e-buses by 2025. Mumbai, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Kolkata are equally enthusiastic. Some private bus operators such as Green Cell mobility, backed by global investment funds, have started intercity electric bus operations.

Is this the end of the road for conventional fuel vehicles? It is perhaps early to proclaim so, but a discernible shift is underway. Let us take the example of Delhi as a trend marker, being the national leader in electric vehicle adoption. Deep dive into registration data of last year reveals that in the three-wheeler goods segment, adoption has already reached the tipping point, with more than 60 per cent of new registrations being electric.

The demand for passenger auto rickshaws was far lower, though e-rickshaws proliferated. In the four-wheel segment, electric cab registrations almost touched the 50 per cent mark. Lower cost of operations are bound to ensure that city level commercial operations will turn electric.

These include logistics, last mile deliveries and e-commerce operations. Two-wheeler owners are equally price conscious and a solution which is easier on the pocket is definitely an attractive option. Personal four-wheelers is a different value proposition, as car owners don’t want to be bogged down by range anxiety as they drive along highways for a holiday. Yet, environmentally conscious consumers are making a switch.

Tough road ahead

So far, we have reaped the low hanging fruit. The road ahead is more arduous. For one, subsidies for buyers or sellers would dry up in the medium term. Therefore, production efficiencies must offset the inherent cost disadvantage. Nearly 40 per cent of an EV’s cost is on account of batteries. Cell manufacturing is yet to take off in India, though an aggressive Central Government push will see some results over the next couple of years.

Secondly, charging infrastructure must be planned scientifically, not just in cities, but along the highways. The Centre is working on a programme of electrifying highways, powered by solar energy. This would help in adoption of heavy duty and medium duty trucks, which are heavily polluting.

Thirdly, the source of power itself for electrification must be green, for it to be truly zero emission. Current models, in a way are simply shifting the pollution load. Fourthly, corporate India must put money where their mouth is. Lofty pronouncements for the long term won’t suffice.

G20 summit is an occasion for India to demonstrate global leadership by announcing a roadmap for decarbonising transport, which would only help breathe clean air into LiFE.

The writer is Principal Secretary Transport, GNCT of Delhi. Views are personal