In terms of noise, Democrats perhaps bettered Republicans by the time their four-day National Convention ended in Chicago and the Vice-President Kamala Harris was formally nominated to the ticket, along with Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. Speaker after speaker tore into the Grand Old Party and, principally, the former President Donald Trump. At every turn, the Trump campaign must have regretted not having Joe Biden on November 5.
A better scenario for the Trump team would have been Biden doing slightly better in the first debate on June 27 and staying on at Chicago with Democrats tearing themselves apart on the convention floor. None of these happened. Biden quickly dropped out, endorsed Harris and money started flowing in. And then a raucous convention showcased not just the best speakers but also sowed the seeds of bringing out the worst in the former President.
Word has it that Trump is already seething at what the Clintons and Obamas had to say. But not many Democrats are losing sleep on this account. If there are those in the party who would want to believe that the Chicago jamboree was the next best thing that happened after a loaf of bread, others are striking a note of caution.
Hours before independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr announced his decision to drop out of the race and endorse Trump, former President Bill Clinton took to the convention stage to remind Democrats of one word they know but somehow drowned in that euphoria: complacency.
Brutal, tough business
“We’ve seen more than one election slip away from us when we thought it couldn’t happen, when people got distracted by phony issues or overconfidence. This is a brutal, tough business. I want you to be happy… But you should never underestimate your adversary, and these people are really good at distracting us, at triggering doubt, at triggering buyer’s remorse… We’ve got to be tough,” the 78-year-old former President, still seen as the best communicator, warned.
President Clinton ought to know better. Eight years ago the former First Lady Hillary Clinton saw an election slip away from her in what has been pinned on Democrats taking for granted poll after poll showing Clinton ahead of Trump, only to be stumped on election night in 2016. And that is precisely what stalwarts like President Clinton are warning Democrats and the Harris campaign about. Even in the absence of any survey yet on a post-convention “bounce”, national polls and those in battleground states are showing Harris wiping out Biden’s deficit against Trump and marginally pulling ahead.
Over and beyond what former President Clinton had to say, Democrats have their task cut out and the Kennedy factor is their latest headache. Kennedy Jr endorsing Trump does not mean that all his supporters will fall in line and much depends on the extent to which Democrats and Harris are able to sway this group.
Further, Trump has been warned even within the Republican camp to be careful about what is being offered for support.
Some 70 days to go for the November election, almost anything could happen. It is not as if Harris has pulled away with an insurmountable lead. All national and battleground state polls showing Harris even or slightly ahead of Trump are within the margin of error.
A lot is being put on the next Presidential debate on September 10 with the Trump campaign constantly reminded that Kamala Harris is not Joe Biden, given her prosecutorial background and debating skills. But Trump will say anything that comes to his mind, knowing full well that fact-checking by networks and individuals come later.
The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations