Recently, the Economic Advisor to the Finance Ministry, Mr Kaushik Basu, told presspersons that the Ministry might just revisit the forecast for GDP in the current year and lower it a notch. Global commodity and fuel prices are rising, putting pressure on growth worldwide, and India, he said, will have to take stock of that. In a break from past practice, the Finance Ministry will undertake an interim review of the economy that will analyse current developments and, accordingly, fix a new and more modest GDP forecast. As Mr Basu added, India will be following a trend prevalent all over the world, with several economies pegging their growth for the current year at lower levels. That should not become an excuse for not exploring policy options on revitalising the engine of growth.
The downside risk is real. The RBI's annual statement, released a few days ago, has already sounded the cautionary note in its analysis of the year gone by and its prognosis of the one we are in now. According to the central bank, it is the inflationary pressure brought about by global commodity prices that is now adding to the “downside risk” of subdued growth. In fact, the RBI has found evidence of “moderating growth” with a sluggish capital goods industry and slackening investment spending. What spending there is, a good chunk of it is flowing to overseas suppliers, especially the Chinese, starving domestic producers, in the process, of much needed incremental demand. Take a look at external commercial borrowings and it is evident that a number of firms in power and telecommunication sectors are importing capital equipment; and no prizes for guessing what they regard as the most attractive source of such imports. China has built up a sizable capital goods industry and now is considered a major exporter of even alternative energy equipment. What the Ministry will have to remember is that the review will be gauged against the sombre mood that permeates the RBI report. What it essentially points to is slowing growth coupled with rising inflation and, as a central bank, it has done what it can do. Now, North Block, while revising its growth estimates, will have to find out just how its vaster and more varied armoury can be utilised to fight sticky prices. So far, New Delhi has simply waxed eloquent on the prospects of high growth without a thought to inflation, treating it as a problem for the RBI to handle.
Restoring the past momentum of growth, combating inflation on multiple fronts and easing regulatory bottlenecks must top the Finance Ministry's policy agenda.