US President Donald Trump fired his Attorney-General Jeff Sessions and put up a feisty performance at a long, rambling press conference in the wake of the midterm elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate. Nevertheless, he couldn’t hide the fact that the midterm election results had been bittersweet. On the plus side for Trump, the Republicans had gained one seat in the Senate. But that cheering news was overshadowed by the Democrats romping to victory in the House of Representatives from where they can demand executive branch documents, launch investigations and even possibly impeachment proceedings against the President. For the Democrats too, the celebrations were visibly subdued. Trump had launched a vitriolic campaign with racial undertones and had twisted facts more shamelessly than ever before. And yet a solid chunk of voters ignored that and put their vote down for him. One commentator summed it up, saying: “Most of America’s allies were hoping for a total repudiation of Trump. What America delivered was a partial one.”
Totting up the numbers, it was clear that urban and suburban voters had turned solidly against Trump but he had held on to his base in rural and exurban areas. Still, there were changes in voter behaviour between the 2016 presidential election and now that bode badly for Trump. For a start, in 2016, Trump, had managed to win over a majority of white, college-educated women, despite lurid stories about his sexual antics. This time, college-educated women voted against him by a large percentage. One fascinating side-effect of the election is that there are now over 100 women in the House, including one Somali-American and one Afghan-American. Also, the Democrats seized back four state governorships, further strengthening their hand. What was even more surprising for commentators is that a large chunk of Americans dislike Trump personally, but believe that he's right to take a tough stand on trade, and to demand better deals from Canada, Mexico, Europe and China. Many believe that their country is being swamped by immigrants and that a wall must be built to slow that down. The mixed results also show that Trump could yet win a second term despite his clearly erratic way of running state affairs.
What effect will the midterms have for global relations and for India in particular? Previous presidents who’ve suffered setbacks in the midterms, have turned their attention to foreign affairs where there is less oversight from the legislative wing. Trump may believe that his belligerent approach to foreign policy is going down well with the American public and offer more of the same. For India, it’s hard to tell what this will bring. India has become closer to the US in the last year even though it has insisted that it will continue to buy Soviet weapons and oil from Iran. But according to Trump’s world-view, we are of peripheral importance and are likely to stay that way.
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