Editorial. Back to coalition

After perhaps the most polarised and divisive campaign in recent times, Lok Sabha Elections 2024 have culminated on a sobering note with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) having been brought down from 303 seats in the 543-member Lower House to about 240 seats (until the time of going to press). Simultaneously, the principal opposition party, the Congress, gained in strength from a measly 52 seats in the 2019 general elections to about 98 seats. As things stand, the BJP-led NDA which comprises N Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh, Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) in Bihar along with several minor constituents such as Lok Janshakti Party, Rashtriya Lok Dal and Apna Dal totals up to about 294 seats, just about 20 seats above the majority mark of 272 in the Lok Sabha. The Opposition INDIA bloc has managed to corner close to 232 seats, 40 less than the magic figure of 272 seats.

Already, the Congress has dubbed the results as a mandate against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attempts seem to be under way to woo back the turncoats from the INDIA bloc, primarily Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu, with a view to displace the BJP and form an alternative government at the Centre. Such measures are ill-advised and do not bode well even if INDIA bloc manages to cobble together the required numbers. The need of the hour is to recognise that despite having lost about 60 seats, the BJP is still the single largest party in the Lok Sabha by a long margin and should have the first claim over government formation. It is also the only party at the moment to provide the most stable government. Despite the wind in its sails, INDIA bloc falls way short of the majority and should desist from attempts to form a shaky coalition government.

The noteworthy message from the results is that the electorate has spoken unambiguously against the kind of divisive rhetoric that the Bharatiya Janata Party unfortunately lapsed into. In fact, Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest State which has been central to the BJP totting up robust majorities in the last two general elections, has now been instrumental in bringing the BJP below the majority mark; the BJP is likely to lose 30 seats over its tally of 62 seats in 2019. That the BJP is set to lose even in the seat of Faizabad where Ayodhya and Ram temple are located, speaks volumes about the disconnect between the BJP’s electoral plank including Ram temple, Article 370, Hindu-Muslim divide and the issues that matter to the electorate today — namely unemployment, development, farm income, routine livelihood preoccupations et al. In the most under-developed and poverty-stricken parts of central and eastern UP, people responded well to the SP and Congress’s promises of various “guarantees” particularly the promise of a “right to apprenticeship” that provides a legally-guaranteed apprenticeship to unemployed youth. Another element that altered the BJP’s chemistry on the ground was the conversation around the Constitution — how Dalits perceived the BJP’s “400-paar” sell as a threat of brute majority to amend the Constitution. This pushed Dalits to migrate from Mayawati-led BSP towards the SP-Congress coalition. This movement from the BSP, which has all but collapsed in UP, was aided by the Samajwadi Party’s right caste combination, which distributed over 80 per cent party tickets among non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits.

Indeed, the BJP’s inability even to touch the majority mark implies that the immense political capital that the ruling party, especially the Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had garnered in his last two terms, now stands diminished. While it is creditable that the BJP has still been able to emerge as the single largest party after two terms in office, the emergence of a much stronger opposition ends a decade of single-party dominance, which had helped the BJP push its socio-economic and political agenda. With the party’s new dependence on allies, specially on Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu, it is not going to be easy to push its larger agenda, including the Uniform Civil Code.

It will be keenly watched how this new political formation impacts reforms and economic policy. The BJP’s focus on increased capital expenditure and fiscal consolidation is at odds with the profligate populism professed by Naidu and Nitish. Nitish’s bloated government has appointed more than 2.16 lakh teachers within a span of just 70 days. He has claimed to have created 3.63 lakh jobs and talked about creating another 10 lakh jobs, making the government the only major employer in Bihar.

From a position of brute majority, the PM will now have to learn to exercise flexibility to accommodate the allies. With new wind in its sails, the Opposition will have enough numbers in Parliament to put all legislative agenda under intense scrutiny which is ultimately good for democratic governance – provided it does so. Lastly, this verdict should lay to rest all doubts about EVMs and the Election Commission’s impartiality. Elections-2024 once again prove that India is a unique, thriving multi-party democracy.