The landslide victory of the Grand Alliance in Bihar is significant for many reasons, not least being that it is the first big electoral setback for the BJP since its decisive win in the 2014 general election. (Delhi, despite its sense of self-importance, was not much more than a minor loss.) In optical terms, the Bihar result has dismantled the wheels of the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah election juggernaut. More importantly, it may be a political turning point by encouraging the process of the formation of a broad anti-BJP coalition of the Congress and regional parties in other parts of the country. With the coming together of the JD(U), the RJD and the Congress — three parties that ruled Bihar at one time or another — the BJP and its minor allies were always on the backfoot. It would have taken an even bigger wave than 2014 for the arithmetic of alliance to be undone by ‘charisma’ or ‘chemistry’. As it turned out, the BJP, which performed much better in terms of vote share than it did in the 2010 Assembly election, ended up with far fewer seats.
At the State level, it remains to be seen how the two unlikely allies — the JD(U) and the RJD — manage the transition from electoral victory to collaborating in the business of governance. Nitish Kumar, who will be Bihar’s chief minister for a third time, said the alliance cannot afford to slip up because of the mandate it has received — an oblique but sobering acknowledgement of the challenges of working together. But the impact of this chastening loss on the Centre is going to be even more keenly watched. It would be a pity if this election result is interpreted as a referendum on a reform process that has proceeded sometimes in a much too anxious and halting manner. That economic development and good governance were real issues in Bihar was reflected in more than one poll survey that showed Nitish Kumar as the most popular choice as chief minister. The immediate political impact will be felt in the winter session of Parliament later this month. Whether an emboldened opposition will use the victory to further block the progress of important pieces of legislation, particularly the GST, remains to be seen. But a continued hold-up of parliamentary proceedings will be both unfortunate and politically counter-productive.
The Centre and the central leadership of the BJP should also draw some political lessons from what was an extremely bitter and acrimonious election campaign — one during which sundry party motormouths, hotheads, and fringe players lent credence to the view that there was a growing climate of intolerance in the country. It is time some firm action was taken to see that the focus on a developmental agenda is not hijacked by bigotry and chauvinism. Modi did not win the 2014 election because of such elements, but he could well lose others thanks to them.