The Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana have thrown up a few surprises, all of which point to structural and strategic weaknesses of the principal opposition party – the Congress. The ruling BJP, on the other hand, has delivered a spectacular victory in Haryana where all pundits and pollsters had written it off. In J&K, the real victor is the National Conference which, till the counting trends last came in, was ahead in 42 of the total 47 seats in the Kashmir Valley. The BJP has done well in Jammu where, till the last count, it was leading in 29 of the 43 seats in the region. The Congress came out a distant third in the State where trends indicated it would end up with a total of six seats.

In J&K, the verdict is indicative of a clear polarisation in the two regions wherein Jammu overwhelmingly voted for the BJP even as the party failed to open an account in the Kashmir Valley where it had fielded 19 candidates. The Valley has supported Omar Abdullah-led National Conference. What was interesting was that the people rejected the large number of independents supported by the religio-political Jamaat-e-Islami and the separatist Abdul Rashid Sheikh whose Awami Ittehad Party had fielded 35 candidates in the region. The Chief Minister elect, Omar Abdullah, would do well not to alienate the Jammu region, and should accommodate representatives from the region prominently in the State cabinet. A bigger challenge would be to run a government where the power of the legislature has been severely curtailed and the people’s expectation is nothing less than a restoration of Statehood.

The BJP has swept Haryana for the third time in a row. The party has considerably improved its performance over the 2019 assembly polls when it had won 40 seats, six short of the majority mark in the 90-member assembly with a vote share of 36.49 per cent. This time, till last count, the BJP had improved its vote share to 39.90 per cent and was set to win 48-49 seats in the 90-member assembly. The Congress, with a vote share of 39.09 per cent till the last count, was hovering at 36 seats. Despite almost identical vote shares, the BJP won more seats indicating that the Congress won by larger margins where it managed to do well, but its appeal was not widespread. An over-reliance on the dominant Jats seems to have led to a counter-polarisation among other communities. Another factor for the surprise result was the infighting in the state Congress unit.

The results show the BJP’s capacity to retain power in the Centre as well as in major provinces including Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and the Congress’s inability to wrest it in a direct contest. Coming soon after the Lok Sabha elections, the results are a boost for the BJP. They are likely to impact the upcoming polls, especially in the politically critical State of Maharashtra.

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