The IMD has forecast a wet September (109 per cent of the Long Period Average), affirming what is now a trend – delayed withdrawal of the South West Monsoon. For the last three years, September rain has been way above normal for the entire country (52 per cent, 5 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, in 2019, 2020 and 2021), with considerable regional variations. In recent years, there have been alarming levels of rainfall in regions that are not traditionally flood-prone. An August 8 press statement issued by the Ministry of Jal Shakti says that, in the last five years, “in addition to existing flood prone states of Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal extreme floods were witnessed in the States of Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan due to excess to large excess rainfall in these States combined with extremely heavy rainfall in short duration.” Research and data show that the monsoon is characterised by more dry days, and bucketfuls of rain over fewer days to record near-normal rain for the season. Cyclones, floods, heat waves and droughts of increased severity are to be expected (as is already in evidence), with the IPCC August 2021 report also observing that South Asia will see increased precipitation in the future. A combination of wet and dry phases in the June-September monsoon season can impact acreage and output. As reported by this newspaper, delayed onset of the monsoon this year has resulted in a 5.6 per cent drop in paddy acreage, accompanied by a drop in pulses and oilseeds coverage as well. An extended monsoon could hurt cotton and soyabean crops, as it happened in recent years, as well as pulses in north interior Karnataka and Bundelkhand. It has damaged standing paddy crop in the past. However, a wet September and October creates favourable moisture conditions for rabi crops, including winter paddy.
The policy focus in agriculture is tilted towards drought proofing rather than floods-preparedness. While farmers have begun to adjust their sowing patterns in regions such as Telangana, trying to deal with late onset and withdrawal, policies too must come to terms with altered monsoon behaviour. To deal with flood-related crop loss, crop insurance must become reliable; delays in assessments and payouts, owing to lack of coordination between multiple agencies should be sorted out. In the longer term, cropping patterns could change in the form of short-duration kharif crops and flood-resistant strains. As rainfall turns more erratic, it is necessary for the Central Water Commission (CWC) to correct errors in its release of water from dams. The August 8 press statement acknowledges: “Faulty operations of reservoirs may sometimes result in flooding of downstream region.” The CWC, in 2018, drew up guidelines on filling of reservoirs and the release of water; these protocols should be observed in view of the new monsoon realities. Irrigation must be treated as a crucial infrastructure, with an emphasis on a variety of local solutions for drought-proofing and flood control.
Investment in ‘damage control’ infrastructure can lead to future savings and lower output losses. Floods require a concerted and coordinated response, of the sort shown in the past in dealing with cyclones in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.