The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has arrested Mr A. Raja, the former Minister of Communications and IT, who stands accused of having caused a huge loss to the exchequer by allocating spectrum to some companies in a less-than-transparent manner. He is the second telecom minister to be arrested, the first being Mr Sukh Ram in 1996. While in a sense the action was overdue, eyebrows will surely be raised over how the Government has handled the issue. Indeed, some may cynically ask why at all he was arrested. After all, it was only a few weeks back that Mr Raja's successor, Mr Kapil Sibal, said that Mr Raja had not caused any loss at all. Indeed, he had even called a press conference to rebut the findings of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). Officials in his Ministry had then gone into overdrive to explain that while there might have been “some lapses in the implementation” of the first-come-first-served policy of 1999, the policy itself was flawless. So if the policy was kosher and if no loss was caused, why has Mr Raja been arrested? To get an answer, we will have to wait until the charge-sheet is filed. Until then, speculation will thrive. The Opposition, both in New Delhi and Chennai, have called it a political move, aimed at repairing the bruised visage of the UPA alliance ahead of the elections in Tamil Nadu. The fact that Mr Raja's leader, Mr M. Karunanidhi, was in Delhi just a couple of days ago, has added grist to the mill. If the move backfires on the UPA, as the release of the CAG's report seems to have done, the Government will have only itself to blame. It clearly needs to hone its political skills.
That said, there is little doubt that Mr Raja has become a super-heated potato. Neither the DMK nor the Congress (who need each other reciprocally in the state and the Centre respectively) wants to hold it. So both have dropped him and left him to fend for himself. For the DMK, in particular, he is a major embarrassment at all levels; for the Congress, he may well prove to be the nemesis not only because of his own can of worms but also the other cans that people will demand be opened.
If the Government doesn't look out, the effect of the Raja affair is likely to be similar to the one that the Bofors affair had on Rajiv Gandhi's government — almost complete policy and administrative paralysis which eventually culminated in the crisis of 1991. The glue that held the UPA together, namely, the aura of invincibility that the UPA had come to acquire, could melt away very rapidly. The results of the Tamil Nadu election will provide a clear pointer as to the direction in which the UPA is headed because, between the Congress and the DMK, it is a zero-sum game in the state.