One may argue, ad infinitum , the desirability of the particular tint of saffron that Narendra Modi has suffused his brand of politics with. But in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) third successive victory in the Gujarat assembly elections under his leadership, there is ample proof that growth and development matter, and people do reward governments seen to deliver on these fronts. Between 2002-03 and 2010-11 – roughly coinciding with Modi’s tenure as Chief Minister (CM) – Gujarat’s economy grew by an average 10.4 per cent a year, as against 7.9 per cent for India as a whole. True, Gujarat’s development – whether it is to do with industries such as oil & gas, chemicals, petrochemicals, pharma, synthetic textiles, diamond polishing and diesel engines, or even institutions like Amul – predates Modi. But his period did see the emergence of new industrial centres: From Pipavav and Morbi in the Saurashtra region and Mundra and Anjar in Kutch, to Sanand, Dholera and Halol in central Gujarat. Also, Gujarat’s power situation – unlike in India’s other major industrialised State, Tamil Nadu – has vastly improved over the last decade. That includes in rural areas, where electricity is available round-the-clock and metered for domestic use, along with assured eight-hour subsidised supply for farm connections through separate feeders. That and the policy of large-scale construction of check dams have certainly been good for the State’s largely rain-fed agriculture.
In 2002, the BJP won 127 out of Gujarat’s 182 assembly seats with a nearly 50 per cent vote share by exploiting the religious polarisation resulting from the anti-Muslim violence that year. This time, it managed to get 115 – only two short of its tally in 2007 – and with 47 per cent of the vote. To attribute the latest victory to communal factors clearly makes no sense. For, that being the case, the BJP should never have lost power in say, Uttar Pradesh, where, too, it initially rode the Hindutva wave. Divisive politics – whether based on religion or caste – has shown itself to yield short-term dividends, at best.
The recent record, if anything, points to a maturing of the Indian electorate: While a non-performing ruling party is mercilessly booted out, it is equally dismissive of any Opposition that has no worthwhile agenda to offer. This lesson particularly applies to the Congress in Gujarat, which relied solely on ‘anti-incumbency’ or the BJP losing the so-called ‘Patidar’ vote to its erstwhile CM Keshubhai Patel’s breakaway party. This kind of negative campaign did not go well with the electorate; even Keshubhai’s outfit ended up splitting the anti-BJP vote more than damaging Modi’s prospects. At the end of the day, Gujarat’s people gave a favourable verdict to Modi’s overall development record as CM and also as someone projecting a more positive, aspirational agenda than a listless Opposition. This should encourage other ruling parties as well to focus on what their electorates truly seek – good governance and development. The ones delivering these are destined to win.