The just concluded UK election of 2024 hasn’t thrown up any surprises. The Conservatives, having been in power for 14 years, were in for a defeat, and were defeated. What might have surprised them — and no one else, though — was the extent of Labour’s win. That should give the incoming prime minister, Keir Starmer, enough elbow room to revive his country.
Britain has lost its mojo since the western Atlantic financial crisis of 2008. There’s also been a series of political mishaps, not the least of which was Brexit which has left Britain isolated. Starmer wasn’t too happy then and would like to do something about it. But it’s probably too late now. To the extent that immigration from the EU is a problem for semi-skilled Britons, he will have to play it safe. Most importantly, this election has transformed the political landscape of Britain as completely as the Conservative win of 1979 did when the people turned rightwards. Such was the power of that rightward turn that even the Labour party had to turn right in the 1990s under Tony Blair. Now a large enough number of Britons have turned left. But it’s not the old style left-wing economic policies any longer. This is a social left focused on rights and entitlements to small marginal groups and, indeed, to all others. They make up a powerful vested interest that can ruin the image and prospects of a party and its government.
So Starmer, who owes quite a lot to these groups both within his party and outside it, for enabling such a huge win, will have to find the money to pay for their demands. That means higher taxation because higher borrowing is no longer an option. Will he go that way? If he does he will invite the wrath of the rich and if he doesn’t, of these powerful anti-everything groups. He is, as the saying goes, between a rock and hard place. There may be some low hanging fruit like re-nationalisation of water, electricity, railways, etc., that he can pluck quickly. But it’s hard to see how he can please everybody without having the money for it. The country is bracing itself for several years of plodding along.
Britain’s internal dilemmas will not affect its stances on various international matters, both bilateral and multilateral. The British government, regardless of the party in power, “fully cooperates” with the US. Starmer therefore has to take a view on China. His shadow foreign secretary has said Labour plans “a full audit across Whitehall of our relationship with China so that we can set the direction and a course.” It will be interesting to watch how things shape up. As for India, there’s the free trade agreement, of course. But neither side seems very exercised about signing it and chances are that it will languish, to be warmed up periodically like a bowl of cold noodles. However, post-Brexit UK may seek new markets such as India.