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The results of Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh affirm the national trend of a dominant BJP, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as its spearhead. If it is not invincible, it runs its victors close. In Gujarat, the BJP once again established its supremacy by registering its best-ever performance, beating the iconic Congress Chief Minister Madhavsinh Solanki’s record of 149 seats, set in 1985.
The BJP was set to win 156 seats with an astounding 52.5 per cent of the total votes polled in the 182-member Gujarat Assembly. It was buoyed by a State economy that, unlike in 2017, had shrugged off the effects of GST and demonetisation. The BJP promise of a ‘double-engine sarkar’ driving development seems persuasive on the ground. In 2017, the Congress put up a tough fight on the back of a movement for reservation by the Patidars and discontent over GST teething issues and demonetisation. This time, the BJP patched up with the restive castes, absorbing their leaders. Even in Himachal Pradesh where the BJP is set to lose, with 25 seats as opposed to the 40 seats in favour of the Congress in the 68-member Assembly, the BJP’s vote share was still a robust 43 per cent, barely 0.9 per cent behind the Congress. Similarly, in the high-powered Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) polls where AAP emerged victorious, the BJP actually managed to improve its vote share by three percentage points. The takeaway here is the BJP’s strong hold on the electorate, and its exceptional organisational and booth management skills.
The second big takeaway is that the rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is happening largely at the cost of the Congress. After having ousted the Congress in Delhi and Punjab, AAP has made its presence felt in Gujarat, securing a not-insignificant vote share of about 13 per cent. In the 2017 Gujarat Assembly polls, the Congress had got over 41 per cent of the vote share and 77 seats. The Congress dropped to about 27 per cent votes and 16 seats this time while the BJP increased its vote from about 49 per cent in 2017 to 52.5 per cent. Clearly the vote share swing away from the Congress went in favour of AAP.
In Himachal, the Congress benefited from the BJP’s infighting and botched ticket distribution which saw as many as 21 rebel candidates. In this closely-fought election where the difference between the Congress and the BJP vote share is a mere 0.9 per cent, a credible third player could have considerably altered the results. Although AAP contested the elections in Himachal, it chose to focus on the high profile battles in MCD and Gujarat. In a localised election devoid of any emotive issue, Congress managed a face-saver in Himachal in a straight contest, its first Assembly election win in four years. In the face of a muscular BJP, the Opposition’s fate is surely sealed if its vote is split. Also, the latter’s campaign issues and strategies need to carry more conviction.
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