The BJP’s convincing majority in Haryana and its emergence as the single largest party in Maharashtra are a reaffirmation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and his ability to sell his vision of growth and development to the electorate. The results have disproved sceptics, who interpreted the two rounds of by-elections after the Lok Sabha victory as evidence that Modi and the BJP were losing their grip on the electorate. The bold but risky decision to go it alone in both States — in 2009, the party had won a mere 4 seats in Haryana and only 46 in alliance with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra — has paid off handsomely. In Haryana, where the BJP has been traditionally weak, it has pulled off a historic result. In Maharashtra, the disappointment of not garnering a simple majority is tempered by its emergence as by far the largest party, settling the debate about who is the junior partner, in the event the BJP and Shiv Sena come together again.
The victories were a combination of astute electoral management by BJP president Amit Shah and Modi’s direct voter contact, embodied in a frenetic string of rallies. Together, the two contributed to confounding traditional caste arithmetic — for instance, the non-Jat vote did gravitate to the BJP — and compensated for the absence of strong State-level leaders, usually an important factor in Assembly elections. The ‘anti-incumbency factor’, which the Congress has cited as the reason for losing both States, is actually a vote against its failure to deliver effective governance. The crushing defeat inflicted on the party is one thing; far more serious, the total absence of a clear game plan, except possibly to wait for the BJP to make some serious mistakes. The remarkable shifts in traditional voting patterns seen during the parliamentary elections have persisted in these Assembly polls. The new Indian voter wants change for the better and is clearly prepared to empower those seen as possessing the ability to deliver it.
This is Modi’s — and the BJP’s — biggest challenge. Maharashtra’s immense potential has been wasted through decades of poor governance. India’s most industrialised State is no longer the go-to destination for investors — both domestic and foreign — and its once commendable human development indicators are being overtaken by other States. Mumbai’s ambitions of becoming a global financial capital have been undermined by ramshackle infrastructure, strained beyond tolerance. Haryana, with its strategic position straddling the economic engine that is the National Capital Region and the agricultural wealth of Punjab, has also flattered to deceive. Gurgaon, once touted as the ‘millennium city’, today is plagued by lack of basic civic infrastructure and rising crime and violence. The BJP has its task cut out now — to walk its talk.