Even as discomfort across the country is palpable, with rising summer temperatures and elevated food prices, the India Meteorological Department's forecast of a ‘normal' southwest monsoon for 2011 comes as a relief. The IMD rates low the probability of deficient or excess rainfall during the season. However, the Met Office has conceded that experimental forecasts from the majority of statistical and dynamic models suggest below-normal to normal monsoon rainfall over the country. It also admits that climate forecasts prepared at this time of the year have large uncertainty. So, notwithstanding the ‘normal' forecast, the risk of the monsoon playing truant cannot be ruled out. While the forecast is for the whole country from June to September, what we need are disaggregated forecasts in terms of temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall, especially given the geographical spread of the country and its varied agro-climatic conditions.

To what extent the forecast for June and subsequent months will help agricultural operations is unclear; what is abundantly clear is the urgent necessity to maximise the kharif 2011 output of major field crops such as paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane. While a robust onset of the monsoon — it usually hits the Kerala coast on June 1 — and its steady progress will boost farm prospects, a contingency plan is required in the event of any aberration. State governments have a crucial role to play, not only in ensuring adequate availability of inputs (seeds, fertilisers, agrochemicals, etc.), but also in closely monitoring the progress of farm operations. On its part, the Union Agriculture Ministry must announce the minimum support price (MSP) for various kharif season crops well ahead of actual planting so that growers can decide which crops to plant and source appropriate inputs.

Even from the current high levels, upside risks to commodity prices, including food prices, are real. Globally, in addition to the low carry-in of important crops this year, high crude prices, a weaker dollar, trade and tariff barriers and unchecked flow of speculative capital have all combined to propel food prices higher. Wheat, corn, soyabean and cotton are all at near-record levels which, in turn, have raised the spectre of a repeat of early 2008, when the markets became overheated, but soon collapsed. For a semblance of control over food inflation, it is imperative that the country harvests a bumper kharif crop in September and stays largely self-reliant. It is common knowledge that food demand rises significantly during the festival season (August to October). Excessive stocks of rice and wheat in public warehouses should not only be liquidated effectively in the coming months but also made both accessible and affordable. It is time to address the supply-side issues holistically. The Centre has its job cut out.

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