The Pakistan Army has flung aside the camouflage and is wheeling out its heavy artillery to ensure that its anointed favourite, Imran Khan, wins enough seats in the general elections on July 25 to become prime minister, or name a figurehead for the top job. Besides ensuring an Imran win, the army is equally determined to obliterate former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, once and for all, as a political force. But the army’s assault could destroy the flimsy fabric of Pakistan’s civilian government and its miscalculations might have the opposite result from the one it so fervently desires.
The clearest indications that the army hadn’t captured the high ground in the battle came when Nawaz Sharif and his daughter and political heir Maryam Sharif returned dramatically to Pakistan and were immediately whisked off to Islamabad’s Adiala Jail. Everyone in Pakistan believes the army used the Panama Papers revelations and leaned on the judiciary to ensure that Nawaz received a 10-year jail sentence, and Maryam seven years, for owning property in London. The received wisdom was that Nawaz wouldn’t return when he knew a jail cell awaited him. Now, a jailed Nawaz could be a potent vote-winner in a way military minds cannot comprehend. Even worse, jailing Maryam smacks of pure vindictiveness. To ensure that PPP leader and former President, Asif Ali Zardari, doesn’t somehow claim the crown, corruption charges have also been laid against him. Despite all the manoeuvrings, , it still looks as if Zardari’s Pakstan People’s Party (PPP) will capture a majority in its traditional stronghold Sindh. Similarly, Nawaz’s PML-N should still win in the area around Lahore though south Punjab is less certain. Punjab has 60 per cent of the seats in Pakistan’s parliament. The army has also been leaning on PML-N candidates to switch parties or pull out of the elections. In addition, the provisional government that’s taken charge during the elections, has allowed the mainstreaming of jihadi organisations and several extremist candidates are seeking election. There are also fears the army will indulge in rigging because it will be deployed around polling booths and army officers have been given civilian magisterial powers for the first time. Amidst all this have come sleazy revelations about Imran in his second wife, Reham Khan’s explosive book. But even otherwise, it’s not clear how Imran can gather winning numbers. His party holds only the Khyber-Pakhtunwa province and even there the non-violent Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) is protesting against the army’s heavy-handed tactics. The army has arm-twisted the media to black out the PTM.
Pakistan will be in considerable turmoil in the coming months and after that India will be moving into election mode. It also appears that Pakistan Army Chief Qamar Bajwa, who’s said to be keen on better Indo-Pak relations, has failed to consolidate his position. Talks about better relations will be futile for now. Instead, India must ensure that the charged political situation doesn’t lead to further conflict.