The stock market has demonstrated gravity-defying qualities lately. Despite worries about rate hikes, Fed taper and the inflationary impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, Indian indices rule just 3.5 per cent below lifetime highs. The Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is right in crediting retail investors for the market’s shock-absorbing capacity. As Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pulled out nearly $19 billion from stocks in the last six months, domestic investors have cushioned the fall by pumping in $20 billion. Selling by FPIs even of a fraction of this amount used to precipitate market meltdowns until a few years ago. In the four years from FY19 to FY22, retail investors have been taking multiple routes to raise their equity allocations. Demat accounts have more than doubled to nudge the 9 crore mark. Inflows into equity mutual funds have risen from ₹1.1 lakh crore to ₹1.6 lakh crore, with SIP flows up by 34 per cent. Equity mandates granted to NPS and EPF have allowed these pension funds to invest over ₹1.5 lakh crore annually in stocks. Apart from these conventional vehicles, individuals have been investing through newer options such as exchange traded funds and curated portfolios. It is heartening to see the equity cult in India taking off despite the withdrawal of policy sops such as zero tax on equity gains.
While the retail investor’s newfound propensity for equities is good for the economy and markets, there are some discomfiting aspects to it as well. One, it is clear that a large number of first-time investors are preferring direct stock bets over the institutional route. Despite the surge in SIPs, domestic mutual funds today own just 7.4 per cent of the outstanding stock on the NSE, compared to the direct retail holding of 7.3 per cent. Retail investors favour riskier small and mid-cap stocks while institutions prefer large-caps. Two, derivatives turnover on the bourses has trebled in the last couple of years with retail investors making up a third of the volumes. This suggests that many prefer short-term punting on prices to long-term business ownership. Three, with the market’s vertical climb from February 2016 punctuated by just one big correction in March 2020 (from which it swiftly recovered) investors who’ve joined the equity party recently have no experience of a bear market. Equity product pitches rely mainly on past performance, so new investors who have come in post-2019 at Nifty valuations of 25-50 times, may have unrealistic return expectations.
This is the fall side to what Sitharaman said about domestic investors stepping in to buy when FPIs head for the exit. Given that the days of global easy-money policies powering asset prices are ending, first-time equity investors need to be made aware of the risks they’re taking on, especially in the DIY route. Market regulator SEBI and financial product firms must use their investor education coffers to ensure that new investors understand equity risks. Else, we could have an encore of the 2000 and 2008 experiences when many investors, after being singed by the market correction, left the asset class for good.