Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ability to sell his vision of inclusive development — “ sabka saath, sabka vikas ” (with all, progress for all) — will be tested once again when Bihar goes in for Assembly elections in November. A clutch of opinion polls has predicted differing outcomes in terms of actual seats won by different parties but is broadly similar in terms of the current sentiments of the Bihar voter. As things stand, both the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, and incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s ‘grand alliance’ with former arch foe Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and the Congress, are likely to get around 40 per cent share of the vote each. In India’s first past the post system, this can lead to widely differing outcomes, depending on the intricacies of seat sharing arrangements and candidate selection. Nevertheless, apart from one outlier survey, which has predicted a convincing win for the NDA, it will not be surprising if, even if these polls throw up a winner, the mandate is fractured and fragile.
That would be a tragedy for both Bihar and the country. Once derisively dubbed a ‘ bimaru’ (sick) State, Bihar has surged ahead over the past decade, its economy growing faster than the national average. There has also been a structural shift under way in the State’s economy. Once predominantly agrarian, the new growth engines are manufacturing and services. Improved connectivity, better infrastructure, and rising literacy have all helped drive this change. But the fruits of this growth have not been distributed evenly. Bihar continues to be among the worst performing States in terms of human development indicators, with rates of infant and child mortality, school enrolment and female literacy well below what has been achieved by other States, which were at a comparable level of development two decades ago. Nevertheless, Bihar’s success demonstrates the benefits of a stable government and even marginal improvements in governance delivery. An improved and functional Bihar, with its abundant resources and human capital advantage — according to census data, 40.1 per cent of the State’s population is under the age of 14 — can play a significant role in India’s growth story.
Equipping the State’s young and large workforce with the skills required to find productive and remunerative employment is a challenge, not only for the ruling dispensation Bihar, but for the Centre as well. Sadly, the electoral rhetoric so far does not reflect this. The poll narrative has slipped back into the old and familiar groove of caste and communal equations. For State politicians such as Nitish Kumar or Lalu Yadav, this may be business as usual. But not for the BJP, and more particularly, Modi, who has clearly broken with the BJP’s past tactics to pitch an alternative vision of development. Sticking to this, and not getting drawn into the quagmire of caste and communal politics, will be his biggest test in these elections.