The elections to five State Assemblies, for which polling has just concluded, have been notable in that they have seen record voter turnouts: from around 71 per cent in Madhya Pradesh to over 81 per cent in Mizoram. Political pundits tend to interpret high voter turnouts as a sign of strong disaffection or the presence of an anti-incumbency sentiment. But there are sufficient examples, even in our recent electoral history, to show that it is much too simplistic to make such a correlation; for example, in December 2012, a record 72 per cent turnout saw Narendra Modi returning to power in Gujarat for a third successive time.
The fact is that elections to State Assemblies held over the last couple of years have witnessed significantly high turnouts. What this pattern suggests is the growing involvement of the Indian people with the democratic process — a very welcome thing. One reason for this is the marked demographic shift, with nearly one-fifth of the Indian electorate comprising enthusiastic first-time voters. Issues such as corruption and maladministration (which have been in the media spotlight in the recent past) have led a growing middle class, which has been traditionally somewhat apathetic about politics, to become more and more engaged with the electoral process. The reach of the social media, which is now tapped by all political parties, has also contributed to the increased engagement with politics.
Is there also a political message in the high turnouts in the five State Assembly elections, which have been traditionally perceived as the semi-final to the main event — the Lok Sabha poll? One of the reasons for the tremendous interest in these elections is that they are expected to throw up an answer, or at least provide some kind of signal, to questions on many lips. Will there be clear evidence of a Modi-effect? Or will assumptions about the vote-catching appeal of the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate be exposed as mere hype? The BJP will need to do more than merely win Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh to demonstrate there is a Modi factor — it will have to show a distinct improvement in its vote share. The situation in Delhi is somewhat more complicated for the BJP as the Aam Aadmi Party — with its middle class appeal and its promise of an alternative kind of politics — could well be a spoiler by mopping up a fair amount of the anti-incumbency vote. If the BJP sweeps these four States, it will have a lot of momentum going into the 2014 general election. The Congress, which is on the back foot, needs to do much less to redeem itself. A surprise result in one State (Chhattisgarh?) and a fair showing in another would probably be enough to demonstrate what it is most keen to do in the existing circumstances — disprove the Modi myth.