Trump’s year

The antics of US President Donald Trump never cease to amaze and he has stayed true to form till the very close of the year. In a string of quick-fire actions, he announced that US troops would be pulling out of Syria and then forced the Federal government into a partial shutdown unless Congress agreed to cough up $5 billion for his border wall. His impulsive move to pull out of Syria, triggered the resignation of US Defense Secretary James Mattis, who has been widely described as ‘the last adult in the government.’ From now on, there is hardly anyone to stand between the President and his worst impulses. Trump hasn’t talked about Afghanistan, but the key players in the Afghan imbroglio — everyone from the Afghan government, the Taliban, Pakistan, India, Iran, Russia and the Chinese — are hurriedly making new calculations about potential scenarios, if the US cuts troop numbers.

Is there a method in Trump’s madness? The answer is possibly, yes. He is supremely focussed on keeping his core base happy, and they believe that illegal immigrants are overrunning the country and that a wall will keep them out. Even middle-of-the-road Americans who aren’t Trump supporters, back his efforts to arm-twist Europeans to pay larger amounts towards NATO expenses. Looking eastwards, former President Barack Obama had also started taking a tough line on Chinese investments in American tech companies. Many Americans approve of Trump’s tough line with the Chinese, though they probably do not realise that they pay the price for a higher tariff wall.

Even if we accept that Trump is fulfilling Middle America’s hazy desires, there’s no getting away from the fact that this is a man who believes the US government must treat his every whim as a command. His administration’s attrition levels would have sunk any other President. Currently, Mattis is on his way out and so is White House Chief of Staff, John Kelly. Recent departures include Attorney-General Jeff Sessions and US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley. Another recent departure, Ryan Zinke left under a cloud. As a result, American businessmen are now losing faith in his presidency. Their up and down view of Trump is reflected in the stock market which, after gaining 35 per cent between November 2016 and this September, is close to bear territory. Trump is now entering uncharted waters because from January the Democrats will control the House of Representatives. Also, there are signs that the world economy is heading into slowdown territory. So, will 2019 be the year when Trump realises that his impetuous actions will have consequences that will be hard to contain? The rest of the world can do little but hope.