The US and Pakistan have been uneasy bedfellows ever since Al Qaeda launched its devastating attack on the World Trade Center. But the alliance is more frayed than ever after President Donald Trump’s New Year’s Day Twitter tirade accusing Pakistan of swallowing up $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years and taking Americans for a ride. The Pakistanis reacted with usual injured innocence and called meetings of the army’s corps commanders, almost certainly a more powerful group than any civilian body, and the National Security Council. Late Tuesday, Pakistan’s central bank announced bilateral trade between China and Pakistan would henceforth be conducted in yuan — though the facility has existed for the last six years, it’s not been widely used. This announcement furthered a longstanding Chinese ambition to make the yuan a reserve currency globally. In fact, China has reportedly been pushing for the yuan to be accepted freely in Gwadar, the Pakistani port they’ve leased for 40 years.
Everyone, including senior Indian government officials cock-a-hoop about the tweet, has been puzzled by its timing and what suddenly triggered it. Back in October, Trump praised Pakistan’s role in rescuing a US woman, her Canadian husband and their children, and a few weeks ago he said Pakistan was starting to “respect” the US. One possibility is the Americans are furious they haven’t been given access to a Haqqani terrorist captured in the hostage rescue. Still, it should be noted that Trump, though he famously flip-flops on other subjects, has been quite consistent in asserting a harsher line needs to be taken with Pakistan. In August, in a speech hiking Afghanistan troop levels, he launched a fierce attack on Pakistan for sheltering terrorists. Since then, the Americans have ramped up the anti-Pakistan rhetoric on several occasions
Nonetheless, Trump’s effort to ratchet up pressure on Pakistan to more aggressively go after insurgents harming US interests in Afghanistan may come up against hard geo-strategic realities. Both George W Bush and Barack Obama were forced to confront the glaring fact that supplies for US troops are best landed in Karachi and taken by road to Afghanistan. The two unattractive alternatives for the Americans are to land supplies in Iran or make a long, circuitous journey from a Russian port. The Pakistanis know they still hold a winning hand — hence their time-worn response of being sinned against rather than sinning. Interestingly, there’ve been no attacks on American convoys in Pakistan during the last year. Indian government officials are understandably gratified by Trump’s threat of “no more” American military aid largesse. Whether Trump carries through on his threat is another matter. Pakistan is heading for an election this year and the immutable fact is that its interests run contrary to US counter-terrorism goals. Despite Trump’s Twitter cannonball, it could be back to business as usual — or lack of it — soon enough.