Will peace come up trumps at S’pore?

KS Dakshina Murthy

If there is one event in recent times that has taken the world by storm it is the summit today between North Korean President Kim Jong Un and his US counterpart Donald Trump.

No one, including probably the two main actors, Trump and Kim, has a clear idea what will come out of the summit in Singapore. Will it ease decades-long tensions in US-North Korean relationship? Or, will the summit turn counterproductive given the mercurial temperament of both the leaders?

The world at large sees the summit, if there is no last minute glitch, as an achievement in itself. Trump will get the credit for being the first US president since World War II to personally meet a North Korean president when in office.

Apparently, no US president has even deigned to have a telephonic conversation with their North Korean counterpart.

Trumping one and all

By all accounts Trump’s acceptance of Kim’s suggestion for a summit has proved once again he is among the most unpredictable US presidents the world has seen in a long time.

Trump’s profile is not that of a dove, unlike his predecessor Barack Obama who even managed to win the Nobel Prize for peace just by mere posturing not long after he took over office.

Trump, on the contrary, has come across as a pugnacious individual with a penchant for belligerence and bluntness.

His track record so far has only pushed the US towards confrontation with other countries. Trump’s recent action in walking out of the nuclear deal with Iran and the virtual declaration of a trade war with his allies — the European Union and with China — are clearly aimed at unsettling established agreements.

He upended Washington’s policy of not crossing a red line on the Palestinian issue by controversially shifting the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem — an action that has adverse consequences in the raging Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

The US president’s mindset, that has been the subject of much alarm, introspection and derision in his country, was seen as one that did not care for political correctness or nuanced diplomacy. His decision to ban Muslims of eight countries to enter the US and his threat to build a wall along the border with Mexico were early indications of his persona.

World leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron, Chinese President Xi Jinping, British Prime Minister Theresa May and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have already had a taste of Trump.

If the US president showed extreme warmth during meetings with each of these leaders, his actions ran counter to what his behaviour promised.

Trump did not pay heed to Macron’s request not to renege on the Iran nuclear deal. As for Xi, Trump, after two successful meetings, promptly went ahead and imposed tariffs on Chinese goods.

Theresa May, who was under the impression that Trump would be like other presidents, has been repeatedly shocked by the US president’s negative remarks on Britain’s Muslim community and her government’s perceived response to terrorism. If Modi expected special treatment, that has been belied by restrictions imposed on visas of Indians working in the US.

In this context, the summit with North Korea is by far Trump’s most peaceable and statesman-like move, even worthy of a Nobel Prize. And, this is what has stumped both his detractors and admirers.

Kim surprises too

On the other hand, that Kim, the inscrutable leader of a nation that is little-known to the outside world, deigned to broach the idea of a summit has equally flummoxed everyone.

Kim, who gives out measured responses in the controlled North Korean style, has so far not indicated what pushed him into inviting Trump for a face-to-face talk. According to various accounts, Kim may have been willy-nilly forced into reconciliation by China.

Earlier this year Beijing, reportedly alarmed by the galloping nuclear prowess of Pyongyang, cut down on trade with its neighbour.

For North Korea, which depends on China for survival, it was clear that any further nuclearisation would not only be opposed by Beijing but would also be punished for it. Kim, in fact, made it clear who his first preference was by meeting Chinese President Xi in Beijing in March immediately after offering to meet Trump.

China’s concern

In the larger geopolitics of South-East Asia, where China is seeking to assert itself vis-a-vis the US and its allies like Japan, Trump’s meeting with Kim has larger implications. Any rapprochement between the US and North Korea could deprive China of its hold over Pyongyang. Until now, the West has relied on Beijing to communicate with North Korea. It wouldn’t be to China’s advantage to see Pyongyang slip out of its orbit.

At the same time, China has increasingly felt uncomfortable with the overarching nuclear capability of Pyongyang. An ideal middle path for Beijing would be to ensure that North Korea continues to be its ally first before befriending the US.

The summit is expected to involve elaborate discussions on two major sticking points — the US demand that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons programme and Pyongyang wanting Washington to reduce, if not give up, its military presence in South Korea. Both countries are not likely to give up their positions and that is what makes the summit so dicey.

In that case, the situation can exacerbate with the US tightening the screws on Pyongyang and North Korea going defiantly back into its shell.

If better sense prevails, as many hope, the summit could result in a roadmap towards resolving seemingly intractable issues within a certain timeframe.

As for common Koreans in both north and south, the summit is the first opportunity in close to seven decades that could potentially resolve the latent conflict between the two states resulting in more peaceful times ahead.

The writer was formerly Editor at Aljazeera based in Doha.