The state-wise child sex ratio (number of females per 1000 males in 0-6 years age group) in India during 2001-2011 declined except in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Mizoram, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu (see table). Interestingly, these are the same states that had recorded a significant fall in child sex ratio during 1991-2001.
Adverse child sex ratio can have many implications. In a growing economy, the need for a labour force would be a requirement. Females, like capital goods, not only directly provide the force but also bear children who are the future labour force.
Second, ‘missing women’ imply that the proportion of single men, say above 50 years, would increase which, according to UNFPA (2012) would rise from 1.1 per cent in 2010 to 10 per cent in 2060.
There are costs involved with prolonged bachelorhood. There also is a fear that scarcity of brides may generate new waves of female migration from neighbouring countries with different cultures and customs and even such migration may not be able to meet the need.
In the absence of such migration, cases of human trafficking, kidnapping, forced marriages and other related crimes can increase. All these all would imply cost to the fisc and society.
Transitory phase
Adverse child sex ratio could be a transitory phase in a growing economy like China, India or Korea, as evidenced by empirical studies in view of technological advancement in pre-natal sex selection tests, which are painless and affordable, prompting couples to tailor-make the composition of their families.
The trend could have a geographical pattern too and the preference for sons could be higher in rural areas because of the sway of traditional institutions as well as in some other regions which are rooted in longstanding local institutions, according to UNFPA (2012).
Gender discrimination has a strong economic reasoning and reflects the generally held perception that girl constitutes impoverishment and boy constitutes enrichment.
It is with reference to costs and benefits, including the institution of marriage and dowry, that daughters appear so expensive.
Sekher and Hatti (2010), undertaking an empirical study in Karnataka, discuss the origin of dowry in their village of study and argue that the rapid decline of fertility unaccompanied by changes in cultural values has resulted in a deliberate attempt to get ‘rid of girls’ — a conclusion that can be applicable across India.
Research shows that improvements in educational attainment generally lead to a reduced preference for sons. But that could be a slower process.
Government efforts
Central and select State governments have been making concerted efforts since 1996, seemingly to no avail, mainly through conditional cash transfer (CCT), to stem the trend of adverse sex ratio through schemes like Dhanlaxmi , Bhagyalaxmi , Beti Anmol , Ladli , Nanhi Chhaan , and so on. The main criticism against these schemes is that the amount provided by the Government is far less than what is required to sustain and marry off a female child.
Sekher (2010), in an extensive review of select schemesof the Planning Commission and United Nations Population Fund, concluded that there was need for more coordination within departments for successful implantation of these schemes. In general, CCT is considered inefficient in meeting the objectives.
So, is the situation hopeless now? Not as yet but given that this epidemic is prevalent across the States, and the trend unabated, the Indian girl child should be considered a near endangered species both inside and outside the womb and treated as ‘ our national asset ’ from the time of conception.
Agencies and individuals who terminate female life before and after birth should attract severe punishment for damaging the national asset.
The success stories of States such as Punjab should be celebrated publicly and lessons distilled.
To change the mindset towards the female child, including the menace of dowry and expansive marriages, there may be need for the active involvement of panchayati raj institutions; local social, religious and political leaders; media and the entertainment industry; and medical professionals and associations.
In addition, until the mindset changes, there may be need to collectively address the issue of cost that an individual family cannot face and results in adverse child sex ratio.
In recognition of the fact that protection provided to a girl child for the first two decades could yield an income stream for the next five, the setting up of the National Girl Child Investment Fund (NGCIF) financed by long-term Government bonds, venture capital, agencies and tax-deductible donations, would be justified.
The NGCIF could extend substantial financial support to the family of the girl child from conception to cradle and then to college, and even to meet marriage expenses.
Hopefully, with such a liberal funding arrangement, the number of females in the country will increase, get educated and contribute to NGCIF as well as the economy.
(The author is RBI Chair Professor, IIM Bangalore. The views are personal.)