These are exciting times for the Indian two-wheeler industry with new launches set to redefine leadership stakes in the coming years.

First, it was Piaggio which announced the comeback of the Vespa in India. The 125cc gearless scooter has been deliberately priced at a premium (nearly Rs 70,000 on-road) to give the brand a distinct positioning in the market.

Will the move pay off? Opinions are divided within industry but nobody doubts the fact that here is a sleek scooter that manages to stand out in a segment where the Honda Activa reigns supreme. The numbers will be slow in coming but that is not Piaggio's priority for the moment.

Yamaha, likewise, has decided to focus on gearless scooters as part of its growth plan for India and will set up a new plant near Chennai. Old-timers will recall that Yamaha was the ‘hottest' brand in the mid-1980s but lost its way for a host of reasons, ranging from a wobbly partnership with the Escorts group to poor product planning.

Yamaha is a company that does not deserve to fail in a market like India. It has now decided to play to its core strengths in powerful motorcycles, which will showcase its brand while scooters will deliver the bigger numbers.

There is no reason why Yamaha will go wrong this time around. The gearless scooter market has been growing rapidly, thanks to crowded traffic conditions and poor public transport in many parts of the country.

Young working women find the gearless scooter the best bet to handle in these trying conditions and this explains why manufacturers are so gung-ho on its prospects.

Yamaha's plans for India go beyond products; it will use the ancillary supplier base here to source parts for its global operations to keep the overall cost structure in check.

Vying for slice of pie

On the subject of scooters, the fact that Bajaj Auto has chosen to exit this space completely and focus on motorcycles instead continues to intrigue experts. After all, Hamara Bajaj was all about the trusty geared scooter which was once the monarch of all it surveyed till the motorcycle revolution happened and consigned it to the archives.

Bajaj Auto has since shifted its attention completely to bikes and is wedded to its strategy of ‘less is more' where the Pulsar and Discover have been the key growth drivers, both here and in international markets.

Bajaj also believes it makes more sense at this point to aim for the skies in the global motorcycle arena where it has the opportunity to build numbers.

Scooters will mean competing for a smaller share of the pie which will contribute precious little from the viewpoint of profitability or brand building. The company is upbeat on its new Pulsar and Discover range which are expected to take its motorcycle story to the next level.

Ever since it parted ways with the Hero group, all eyes have been on Honda to try and figure out what the company has up its sleeve.

After all, the recent divorce with the Munjals translated into a loss of over five million units annually for the Japanese automaker. More importantly, it realised it needed the right product line-up to take on the super successful Splendor and Passion brands.

The 110cc Dream Yuga is the first part of this script but it is still too early to say if it will take the market by storm. There is absolutely no question that Honda is a brand to be reckoned with but its India success story has been more about scooters than bikes.

It is only the 125cc Shine that has been notching up impressive numbers and whether the Dream Yuga will do better remains to be seen in the coming months.

Honda has also indicated that its next offering will be a less expensive motorcycle and this is when it will really start stepping on the gas in India.

The company has already made it known that it will be looking at a capacity of ten million units by 2020 which will translate into a market share of 30 per cent. This could involve setting up at least six plants which will roll out scooters and motorcycles.

spoilt for choice

Honda's erstwhile ally, now rechristened Hero MotoCorp, will be in no mood to relinquish its leadership crown in a hurry. It wrapped up 2012 with over six million units and will be looking at 15 per cent growth this fiscal.

Hero still commands loyalty among its large customer base who continue to swear by the Splendor and Passion motorcycles.

The younger generation will, of course, be open to new options but these will have to be distinctly different and offer greater value for money than the Splendor and Passion.

TVS Motor Company has been the quiet player in this charged arena. It only seems like yesterday when it called it quits with Suzuki and caught the fancy of the market with the Victor.

However, it just has not been able to capitalise on that dream momentum and the big numbers in motorcycles continue to be elusive. Scooters, though, have been doing well along with the trusty moped. What TVS needs at this point is a big break in the commuter bike segment which will do the trick in building volumes and market share.

Like Yamaha, Suzuki has also decided to focus on scooters as its growth driver for India. It makes sense given that this is a rapidly growing product segment which offers room to more players.

Motorcycles still account for a lion's share of two-wheeler sales but gearless scooters could just tilt the balance a tad in the coming years.

So, who will eventually triumph in the leadership stakes? Experts believe that there would be no ‘drastic changes' over the next three-five years where Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto and Honda will be the key players in the script.

The global market will increasingly become the bigger priority for Bajaj as it sets about building its share in motorcycles. Honda and Hero, on the other hand, are expected to focus more on India. A keen tug-of-war is imminent where the customer will be spoilt for choice in scooters and bikes!