The latest survey of public opinion by CSDS and Lokniti shows, broadly speaking, that many more people are unhappy with the Modi government’s economic performance now than they were a few years ago. They have two major complaints: high prices and low or no incomes.
There’s nothing surprising about this. Indians have always complained about inflation and unemployment. After all, only one thing grows year after year — the price level. And the only thing that doesn’t grow year after year fast enough is employment.
And here’s a peculiarity that no one talks about. No political party has been able to counter this inflation-unemployment problem except when it went to war.
Thus, we have 1962 when India fought China and lost, but the Congress came back to power. In 1971, India fought Pakistan and won, and the Congress came back. In 1999, again the same thing happened except this time it was the BJP. And in 2019 we didn’t actually fight Pakistan but just attacked it in Balakote. In 2017 we had a similar war-like situation with China in Doklam. This tension has been simmering since then. It’s partly the reason the BJP came back in 2019 despite the unemployment problem.
In contrast, whenever there is no war — 1977, 1979, 1989, 1996, 2003 and 2013 — the incumbent government has been unseated. The exception was1984 and the Congress did come back. But that was because Indira Gandhi was assassinated just a month before the general election.
War as an antidote
Is this ‘post hoc ergo propter hoc’, the common fallacy in public reasoning of ‘after this therefore because of this’? It could be. But other countries and their governments have had the same or similar experiences.
The biggest exception to this general tendency was in 1945 when Britain won the war but Prime Minister Winston Churchill lost the general election. That was probably another instance of British humour.
That said, the Modi government, as it gears up for the 2024 general election, is faced with a problem that other governments in India have faced: while overall economic management has been very good, or even excellent, the voter has not been influenced enough to vote the government back to power. No government so far has been able to understand this, including I think the Modi government.
It’s the micros, Sir
Clearly, it’s no use tom-tomming about ‘macro fundamentals’ — as the PIB has been doing with the Morgan Stanley report — when the micro ones are waiting to bite you in the rump. Rating agencies and investment banks may get impressed by India’s macroeconomics but for the voter it’s a case of ‘yeh dil mange more’ in the micro areas of jobs or at least steadily growing incomes from casual work. In the last four years, the opposite has happened.
And this is the paradox. If you manage the macros well, as this government has done, the micros go out of shape — even without a demonetisation that is followed by a pandemic.
But the reverse doesn’t happen, not even when you hand out freebies or come up with ridiculous pre-election budgets. It’s too late by then.
The Modi government appears to have run squarely into this problem. It’s done very well with macroeconomics and failed very badly with microeconomics. The political consequences of this could be quite adverse in 2024, as the experience of the last 30 years suggests.
Thus, in 1988 and 1989, the economy was doing spectacularly well with growth at over 7 per cent. But the Congress lost 222 seats in 1989. The same sort of thing happened in 1996 and 2004. Growth-wise even 2014 was very good but high food inflation knocked the Congress out.
Prime Ministers and mistakes
Another feature of pre-election years is the increase in the number of mistakes a prime minister makes. It’s an astonishingly consistent pattern. In 1984 Indira Gandhi did Operation Blue star in the election year. Rajiv Gandhi did the Shilanyas at Ayodhya in the election year and legitimised Hindutva. He still lost.
Vajpayee advanced the election by six months thinking he would win hands down because the economy was doing so well, and lost. Manmohan Singh gave over the economy to Pranab Mukherjee and lost.
And now Modi is making all of India’s politics about confrontation for no good reason. The latest example is the refusal to bow to pressure on the wrestlers’ demands on Brijbhushan Singh. He may well give in as he has done on so many occasions — land acquisition Bill, farm reform Bill, CAA. But why wait till it’s too late?
As William Shakespeare said: “The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.”