How cities can cope in these Covid times

The theme for this year’s World Cities Day — on October 31 — was sustainable communities and cities. In 2018, 55 per cent of the world’s population lived in cities and it is expected that by 2050 two-thirds of the global population will live in cities. While decades of development economics research has focussed on rural poverty and development, there can be no better time to appreciate the importance of cities than the unprecedented times we are in.

Covid-19 has shown how important cities are not only for economic growth, but also to make communities sustainable. Globally, cities contribute to about 80 per cent of GDP while in India they account for about two-thirds of GDP.

Unsurprisingly, the series of lockdowns announced in cities, including London, Mumbai, Delhi and Bengaluru, to tide over the crisis caused by Covid-19 show how economic growth in the respective countries nosedived as a result.

A Barclays report estimated that the economic loss from the shutdown of Manila, Delhi, Mumbai and Kuala Lumpur would be to the tune of $1 billion a week. However, there is little data on Covid prevalence in our cities; whatever data reported is at the district/State level.

At the State level, our study found a positive correlation of 0.43 between urbanisation and Covid prevalence. At the district level, urbanisation had a positive and significant effect on Covid prevalence, due to density.

The study also found the workforce participation rate to have the expected positive effect on Covid prevalence at the district level, reinforcing their effects on economic activity. Most interestingly, district income had a negative effect on Covid prevalence, implying that relatively higher income and educated districts were characterised by lower Covid prevalence.

Given the evidence on Covid in enclosed spaces, there was negative correlation between the percentage of open spaces and prevalence of the virus in Indian cities.

This also implies that the more vulnerable, highly dense and low income districts are vulnerable to the virus. While globally more than 800 million people live in slums, in Indian States we found a positive correlation of 0.48 between the percentage of slum households and prevalence of Covid. In addition to the quantitative evidence on the relationship between urbanisation and Covid, there is qualitative and anecdotal evidence to demonstrate the importance of cities.

Never before have cities been so stressed by having to test for the virus, do contact tracing, and monitor those in quarantine and self-isolation.

Due to this, the already stressed city administrations are even more financially and physically stretched. Recently, a CAG report pointed out that only 37 per cent of revenues required by urban local governments in Karnataka are generated by them.

In this context, it is important to understand the role of NGOs and resident welfare associations (RWAs) as units of governance in cities to assist city governments. Community and collective action as assisted by RWAs and NGOs in cities play a major role in Covid incidence and recovery.

Given the extent of association between slum households and Covid prevalence, there is plenty of evidence that NGOs and RWAs have played significant roles in preventing and supporting these communities in difficult times.

Role of NGOs and RWAs

It is also possible that cities like Mumbai, which initially bore the brunt of the virus, have managed well only because of the efforts of the NGOs and RWAs. But we do not have any systematic data at the city level either about the number of RWAs or NGOs, or the extent of their action. RWAs and NGOs, depending on their capacity, can also help city and district administrations in identifying the priority target groups for the vaccine, as soon it becomes commercially available.

All units of governance such as NGOs and RWAs should be registered with the city administration, and their practices in preventing the spread of the virus documented. In addition, cities should initiate a repository of best practices from these organisations, so that other cities can follow the protocol to prevent the spread of the virus.

This also will reduce the burden of the city administration, already reeling from the responsibility of existing functions.

It is wrong to assume that cities will fail to exist due to the pandemic and as most of the skilled workers are working from home. At an all-India level, Internet penetration was only 36 per cent in 2019 — with a high of 69 per cent in the NCR and a low of 25 per cent in Odisha — refuting over-reliance on the Internet for work-from-home.

In India, more than 90 per cent of the workforce is informal, which depends on a physical commute to earn their livelihood, hence cities will continue to exist and be increasingly important for livelihoods.

The World Cities Day is an optimistic reminder of the important role cities and communities can play in alleviating the negative effects of the virus.

The author is a professor at the Institute for Social and Economic Change. Views are personal.