The Chinese had a saying, “Fear not the sun, fear not the moon. Fear the foreign devil who speaks English.” They were referring to the British. But we must not forget that Americans also speak English.
The last few years have seen a mutual buttering up by India and America that seems to be aimed primarily at China. That’s fine. China is a pain in the global neck.
But how long will this fifth edition of Indo-US romance last? The past provides a guide. It doesn’t inspire.
India, because of its size, likes to think of itself as South Asia, whereas the rest of the world can see the other seven countries as well — Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal, Maldives and Bhutan. All share a passionate desire that America be their permanent lover.
But like a good playboy America rotates them. Simultaneously, therefore, the South Asian countries are also deeply distrustful of America and jealous of each other.
Not just this. There’s a big problem even for the chosen one. As someone once said, being in bed with America is like being in bed with an elephant. If it turns towards you, you can easily get crushed.
India has discovered this many times since 1947. So have the others, but less often. The Indian experience is very instructive.
On and off
Let’s take a decadal view — 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, 1970s and so on till now. It’s a distressing story of on now, off now.
It started in the 1940s when America put a lot of pressure on the British to grant independence to India. The Congress and the then US government were totally enamoured of each other.
In the 1950s independent India and America cosied up until America started selling arms to Pakistan. And love went out of the window.
In the 1960s there was a brief and minor flirtation after our defeat at the hands of China. But when in 1965 America chose Pakistan over India — Pakistan had attacked us and been defeated — things went very sour again.
They stayed that way for 20 years because Indira Gandhi chose the USSR over the USA, with good reason. America was way too demanding vis-a-vis policy changes. It was “Me Tarzan, you Jane”.
Then came Rajiv Gandhi as prime minister in 1985 and America thought he would be pliable. But when it turned a blind eye to Pakistan’s nuclear programme and let it build the atom bomb, India pushed back. In 1990 America finally pulled the plug and our foreign exchange flowed out and we had that enormous balance of payments crisis in 1991.
The 1990s were a completely no-go decade for the two suitors. India wanted to go nuclear and did so in 1998. America was incensed because when it found out, it was via CNN. So it imposed sanctions on us that lasted for four years.
Then came the UPA government in 2004. Two years earlier, god knows why, the US had lifted the sanctions and wanted to become besties again. Much footsie followed for the next five years.
Prime minister Manmohan Singh, against Sonia Gandhi’s wishes, pulled off the nuclear deal in 2008 and Indo-American friendship was in full bloom again. But it didn’t last very long.
By 2013 it had soured again — so much so that Barack Obama made Manmohan Singh wait till the very end of his visit to grant him an audience. Reason: India had failed to open its markets as much the US wanted.
The Modi years
Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014 and the elaborate quadrille started again. By now the US had decided that it had to challenge China’s challenge. India became a useful partner.
This new romance is now reaching its highest point — which means when it gets there, it can only go down. The US could want India to do far more for it than India can afford.
That’s how it’s always been with the US. That’s what we have to watch out for. The elephant can turn anytime. The trigger can be anything, including a silly allegation like that by Justin Trudeau.
In contrast, our relations with the former USSR, and now with its successor state Russia, as well as France, have been remarkably stable and helpful.
The key difference between the US and the USSR and France was that the US demanded servitude of the Pakistani type and the USSR and France didn’t.
Both India and America should think about this. America needs to change its attitude a lot. India needs American technology but if not given it, it can develop its own as it has always done.
But where will America get another India to counter China? Hmmm…?