Some months ago, I read an article in the German magazine Der Spiegel regarding the apparent “extinction” of villages in the prosperous state of Bavaria. Whereas cities in the state, such as Munich, experience continued growth and exploding rent prices, smaller villages are faced with such alarming population declines that they risk disappearing altogether. After reading on these demographic shifts, I could not help but feel a sense of sadness, as I recalled my teenage summers working in the Bavarian countryside during the school holidays.
DOOM AND GLOOM
Across Europe, the prevailing mood of the last few months has been one of doom and gloom, with the ongoing repercussions of sovereign debt crises, a nervy Euro, and renewed scepticism regarding the European project as a whole. Globally speaking, a widening gap between rich and poor, combined with political discontent, has unleashed a wave of frustration. And this has manifested itself in movements that are as varied as the youth demonstrations in Spain, the student protests in Chile and the Arab uprisings across North Africa and the Middle East.
Hence, there's a tendency to feel as if we are in a relentless state of crisis, regardless of whether we are confronting the spectre of a deserted village or a wall of enraged protestors. The unpredictability of volatile global markets, the new generation's high expectations, and the unexpected forces of nature have shown why leaders today must develop the capabilities to function in an extremely disruptive, unpredictable environment.
Moreover, while some of the disruptions are tangible, such as flooding in Bangkok or the transition of political power in North Africa, there are some other currents which are swirling just as swiftly, but with greater subtlety. The global shift in relative wealth and economic power, now underway — from West to East and from North to South — is without precedent in modern history in terms of size, speed, and directional flow. For example, China has regained the position it held two centuries ago, when it produced approximately 30 per cent of global wealth.
UNPRECEDENTED GROWTH
In India, the national scene has hardly been less turbulent than the global backdrop. The past year has been marked by acrimonious debates on corruption, unrestrained inflation and political scandals, providing cause enough to give in to despair. India's growing middle class youth, therefore, did not really emerge as a saviour in the face of global economic contraction, as hoped, but were rather a dissenting voice bewailing the slow pace of governance reforms, poor infrastructure and limited opportunities.
Despite these prevailing circumstances, coming to Mumbai last month I am filled with a sense of optimism for India. Unlike the fading villages of German Bavaria from my childhood, the villages of my grandfather's childhood in Maharashtra are examples of Asia's unprecedented growth during his lifetime. My grandfather, who grew up in virtual poverty, could have never imagined that he would one day earn a scholarship to complete a Masters in Social Welfare at Columbia University in 1947, let alone dream that his grandson would earn a Masters degree from that very university exactly 55 years later.
During the past two decades, poverty has been reduced more dramatically in Asia than in any other part of the globe. By year 2025, nearly half of global GDP growth will come from India and five of its Asian neighbours. India's economic growth is predicted to exceed 8 per cent during the next three years; within 10-15 years, it is predicted to overtake Japan as the second largest Asian economy.
INSPIRATION FOR INDIA
Economic progress is by no means an excuse to dawdle in complacent self-congratulation. And therefore, as India reflects on its uncertain future, I hope stories like my own provide a wellspring of inspiration. I was enthused by the World Economic Forum's first-ever India Economic Summit in Mumbai (November 12-14), the financial hub of both Maharashtra and the country. The theme of the Summit is “Linking Leadership with Livelihood”, reflecting the inextricable link between equitable growth and good governance and transparency. Leaders from government, industry and civil society have been collaborating on ways to improve the education system, invest in much-needed infrastructure, increase agricultural productivity and ensure an equitable distribution of opportunities.
By integrating youth into this year's Summit, we have underscored our commitment to India's other great source of inspiration: namely, its young demography. ‘Generation I' has the passion, dynamism and entrepreneurial spirit needed to shape the future. And, for India to march forward and create a next chapter of socio-economic transformation, it will have to rely on all the enthusiasm and talents of the bulging young generation to make sure that the sort of opportunities that my grandfather enjoyed are fairly distributed.