Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is scheduled to visit India to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) foreign ministers’ meeting in Goa on May 4-5. This is the first time a Pakistani Minister will be in India in more than a decade. Can this mark a turnaround in India-Pakistan relationship?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unexpected visit to Lahore in 2015 stirred up hopes that both countries will re-engage, but that was short-lived. Terrorist attacks — Pathankot (2016) and Pulwama (2019) — forced India to pause diplomatic relations. Imran Khan recalled the ambassador and cut off trade ties when India abrogated Article 370. Despite these, both sides reached a ceasefire agreement in 2021 and ensured that truce is maintained.

Domestic politics in Pakistan is hindering talks with India. With the country going to polls later this year, embattled Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is already facing criticism for the upcoming visit by Zardari. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Vice-President Fawad Chaudhry, in a tweet, said Zardari’s visit would be a stab in the back of Kashmiris.

Restoring normal relations with India is not on the agenda. So, why is Pakistan attending the event?

It has a lot to do with its own financial situation. Pakistan owes China nearly $30 billion, IMF data show. China will have to give its nod for any debt restructuring deal. Another pain point is the slowdown of several projects in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan also needs Russia to fulfil its energy needs.

A recent Reuters report has said that Pakistan placed its first order for discounted Russian crude oil and the first shipment will reach the country in May. With the US largely ignoring Pakistan’s financial troubles, the cash-strapped country can’t afford to offend China and Russia, the founding members of the SCO.

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